- λ home
- 0.85
- λ away
- 2.09
- Σλ total
- 2.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 0–2 11.6%
Doxa Neo Sidirochori vs Xanthi FC prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Doxa Neo Sidirochori v Xanthi FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Doxa Neo Sidirochori v Xanthi FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doxa Neo Sidirochori (home) | 1.78 | 0.92 | 0.57 | 0.94 |
| Xanthi FC (away) | 1.44 | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.86 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.78 × 0.92 × 0.57 ≈ 0.94
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.81 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.90 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.85, λaway = 2.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 66.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Doxa Neo Sidirochori | 18.4% | 23.0% | 8.9% | 17.1% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 11.0% | 17.9% | 13.9% |
| 2 Xanthi FC | 58.2% | 66.0% | 73.2% | 69.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Doxa Neo Sidirochori | 17.1% | 5.85 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +70.9% | |
| X · Draw | 13.9% | 7.20 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Xanthi FC | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -15.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 31.0% | 3.23 | 3.60 | 27.8% | +11.5% | |
| X2 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -14.6% | |
| 12 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Doxa Neo Sidirochori | 19.8% | 5.04 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Xanthi FC | 80.2% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.8% | 4.81 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -6.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 1.51 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -8.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.5% | 6.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.568 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Doxa Neo Sidirochori | Xanthi FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDD | WWDWWD |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.40 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.80 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 33% |
| BTTS | 60% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Xanthi FC favoured on the road at 69% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Doxa Neo Sidirochori 9th on 3, Xanthi FC 2nd on 13.
Form
Doxa Neo Sidirochori, last five: L D L D D – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Pontion Nea Amisos. Per match: 1.4 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Xanthi FC, last six: W W D W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Eleftheroupolis. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Doxa Neo Sidirochori 0.85 · Xanthi FC 2.09 · total 2.94. High total: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Doxa Neo Sidirochori 1–2 Xanthi FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Gamma Ethniki Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Doxa Dramas | 5 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 |  Xanthi FC | 5 | +9 | 13 |
| 3 |  Aetos Orfani | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 |  Eleftheroupolis | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 |  Kavala | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Pontion Nea Amisos | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 |  MAS Ardas Kastanion | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Thrakis | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 |  Doxa Neo Sidirochori | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Apollon Paralimniou | 5 | -8 | 3 |
More Gamma Ethniki Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Doxa Neo Sidirochori vs Xanthi FC?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Doxa Neo Sidirochori v Xanthi FC probabilities?
Doxa Neo Sidirochori win 17%, draw 14%, Xanthi FC win 69%.
What is the most probable score for Doxa Neo Sidirochori vs Xanthi FC?
Doxa Neo Sidirochori 1–2 Xanthi FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Doxa Neo Sidirochori vs Xanthi FC?
Doxa Neo Sidirochori 0.85, Xanthi FC 2.09 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Doxa Neo Sidirochori vs Xanthi FC?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Gamma Ethniki Group 1.