- λ home
- 1.72
- λ away
- 1.75
- Σλ total
- 3.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.4%
Vvsb vs Gemert prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Vvsb 40% · draw 19% · Gemert 41%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Vvsb v Gemert: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Vvsb v Gemert are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.72 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.72, λaway = 1.75
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vvsb | – | 40.0% | 39.8% | 39.9% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 22.7% | 18.8% |
| 2 Gemert | – | 44.0% | 37.5% | 41.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vvsb | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -10.6% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.31 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -26.2% | |
| 2 · Gemert | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -1.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -16.0% | |
| X2 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -5.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vvsb | 49.2% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Gemert | 50.8% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.9% | 7.18 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -12.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -2.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -14.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -1.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -13.5% | |
| BTTS no | 31.9% | 3.14 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +2.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.4% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.4% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.2% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.695 × 1.26 − 1 = -0.124 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vvsb | Gemert |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDLL | WDDWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Vvsb 40%, draw 19%, Gemert 41%. Standings: Vvsb 15th on 11, Gemert 9th on 16.
Form
Vvsb, last six: W W L D L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at EVV. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Gemert, last six: W D D W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Excelsior Maassluis. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Gemert 0–1 Vvsb. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vvsb 1.72 · Gemert 1.75 · total 3.47. Goals expected – 70% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.26 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: Vvsb 1–2 Gemert. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 10 May 2026Gemert0–1Vvsb
Derde Divisie Saturday table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ACV | 12 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  VV Scherpenzeel | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Harkemase Boys | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  TEC | 12 | +15 | 24 |
| 5 |  Excelsior '31 | 12 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 |  SC Genemuiden | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sportlust '46 | 12 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Purmersteijn | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sparta Nijkerk | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 |  ADO '20 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Hercules | 12 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 |  Hoogeveen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Eemdijk | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 14 |  DVS 33 Ermelo | 12 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Staphorst | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hollandia | 12 | -13 | 8 |
| 17 |  Dovo | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  SVZW | 12 | -21 | 1 |
| 1 |  FC Lisse | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 |  Noordwijk | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 3 |  Excelsior Maassluis | 12 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Rijnvogels | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 5 |  Zwaluwen | 12 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 |  Poortugaal | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  UDI '19 | 12 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  GOES | 12 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Gemert | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Dongen | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Blauw Geel | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  TOGB | 12 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Roosendaal | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  UNA | 12 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Vvsb | 12 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Groene Ster | 12 | -17 | 9 |
| 17 |  Achilles Veen | 12 | -20 | 6 |
| 18 |  EVV | 12 | -14 | 3 |
More Derde Divisie Saturday predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vvsb vs Gemert?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.26 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vvsb v Gemert probabilities?
Vvsb win 40%, draw 19%, Gemert win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Vvsb vs Gemert?
Vvsb 1–2 Gemert is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vvsb vs Gemert?
Vvsb 1.72, Gemert 1.75 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Vvsb vs Gemert?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Derde Divisie Saturday.