- λ home
- 1.38
- λ away
- 1.54
- Σλ total
- 2.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.5%
Beti Onak vs Subiza prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Beti Onak 36% · draw 21% · Subiza 43%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Beti Onak v Subiza: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Beti Onak v Subiza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.38, λaway = 1.54
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Beti Onak | – | 35.0% | 37.3% | 36.0% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 26.8% | 21.1% |
| 2 Subiza | – | 48.0% | 35.9% | 42.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Beti Onak | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.39 | 41.8% | -14.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -29.9% | |
| 2 · Subiza | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.48 | 40.3% | +6.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -20.1% | |
| X2 | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -8.4% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Beti Onak | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Subiza | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -13.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -6.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.5% | 2.99 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -9.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -4.8% | |
| BTTS no | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -15.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.0% | 3.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.610 × 1.56 − 1 = -0.048 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Beti Onak | Subiza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLD | WLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 21 / 43% for home, draw, away. Standings: Beti Onak 14th on 11, Subiza 5th on 16.
Form
Beti Onak, last six: W L L W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Pamplona. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sequence for Subiza: W L W L W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Txantrea. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Beti Onak 1.38 · Subiza 1.54 · total 2.92. High total: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.56 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Beti Onak 1–2 Subiza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 15 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Izarra | 10 | +22 | 26 |
| 2 |  Mutilvera | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 3 |  Doneztebe FT | 11 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 |  San Juan | 11 | +7 | 16 |
| 5 |  Subiza | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 |  Valle Egüés | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Gazte Berriak | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Beti Kozkor | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 |  Avance Ezcabarte | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aoiz | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 11 |  Txantrea | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cirbonero | 10 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 |  Cantolagua | 10 | -13 | 12 |
| 14 |  Beti Onak | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Huarte | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Pamplona | 10 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Cortes | 10 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 |  Bidezarra | 10 | -10 | 5 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 15 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Beti Onak vs Subiza?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.56 by the bookmakers.
What are the Beti Onak v Subiza probabilities?
Beti Onak win 36%, draw 21%, Subiza win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Beti Onak vs Subiza?
Beti Onak 1–2 Subiza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Beti Onak vs Subiza?
Beti Onak 1.38, Subiza 1.54 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Beti Onak vs Subiza?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 15.