- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.96
- Σλ total
- 2.91
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 10.6%
Mazarrón FC vs Balsicas Atlético prediction & xG model: Mazarrón FC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Mazarrón FC v Balsicas Atlético: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipMazarrón FC to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Mazarrón FC v Balsicas Atlético are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazarrón FC (home) | 1.44 | 0.95 | 1.07 | 1.48 |
| Balsicas Atlético (away) | 1.20 | 0.86 | 1.13 | 1.17 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.44 × 0.95 × 1.07 ≈ 1.48
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.64 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.69 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.91 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 10.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mazarrón FC | 43.6% | 63.0% | 51.9% | 58.3% |
| X Draw | 27.1% | 25.0% | 26.4% | 25.6% |
| 2 Balsicas Atlético | 29.4% | 12.0% | 21.8% | 16.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mazarrón FC pick | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.72 | 58.1% | +0.3% | |
| X · Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -13.5% | |
| 2 · Balsicas Atlético | 16.1% | 6.21 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -34.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.4% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -22.5% | |
| 12 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mazarrón FC | 78.4% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Balsicas Atlético | 21.6% | 4.62 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -17.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -3.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -13.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.17 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -4.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -11.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.8% | 2.28 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -15.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.3% | 5.78 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.583 × 1.72 − 1 = +0.003 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.004 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mazarrón FC | Balsicas Atlético |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLL | WDWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Mazarrón FC 58%, draw 26%, Balsicas Atlético 16%. Standings: Mazarrón FC 16th on 7, Balsicas Atlético 10th on 13.
Form
Mazarrón FC have two wins from their last six (W L W L L L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Balsicas Atlético. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Balsicas Atlético, last six: W D W W L W – four wins in total. Latest: 3–2 at home to Olímpico Totana. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Balsicas Atlético 0–0 Mazarrón FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mazarrón FC 1.95 · Balsicas Atlético 0.96 · total 2.91. High total: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Mazarrón FC to win, probability 58%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Mazarrón FC 1–0 Balsicas Atlético. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Apr 2026Balsicas Atlético0–0Mazarrón FC
Tercera División RFEF Group 13 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Santomera | 10 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Santa Cruz | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Águilas II | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 4 |  San Javier | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  UCAM Murcia II | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Alcantarilla | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 |  Unión Molinense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Los Garres | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Bala Azul | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Balsicas Atlético | 10 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 |  Atlético Pulpileño | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Olímpico Totana | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  SFC Minerva | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  Cotillas CD | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Cartagena LU II | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 |  Mazarrón FC | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 |  Algar | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 |  Bullas Deportivo | 10 | -14 | 5 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 13 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mazarrón FC vs Balsicas Atlético?
The Model pick is Mazarrón FC to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.72 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mazarrón FC v Balsicas Atlético probabilities?
Mazarrón FC win 58%, draw 26%, Balsicas Atlético win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Mazarrón FC vs Balsicas Atlético?
Mazarrón FC 1–0 Balsicas Atlético is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mazarrón FC vs Balsicas Atlético?
Mazarrón FC 1.95, Balsicas Atlético 0.96 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Mazarrón FC vs Balsicas Atlético?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 13.