- λ home
- 2.05
- λ away
- 0.87
- Σλ total
- 2.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.4%
Cotillas CD vs Algar prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cotillas CD 62% · draw 21% · Algar 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cotillas CD v Algar: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cotillas CD v Algar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (8 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cotillas CD (home) | 1.44 | 0.97 | 1.62 | 2.26 |
| Algar (away) | 1.20 | 0.68 | 1.05 | 0.86 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.44 × 0.97 × 1.62 ≈ 2.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.13 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.89 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.05, λaway = 0.87
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cotillas CD | 68.2% | 61.0% | 58.6% | 62.5% |
| X Draw | 19.1% | 15.0% | 24.7% | 20.5% |
| 2 Algar | 12.7% | 24.0% | 16.7% | 17.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cotillas CD | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -5.0% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.87 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -26.1% | |
| 2 · Algar | 17.0% | 5.89 | 5.35 | 18.7% | -9.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.0% | 1.20 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -11.2% | |
| X2 | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -19.0% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -5.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cotillas CD | 78.6% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Algar | 21.4% | 4.68 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -5.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -21.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -1.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -14.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.4% | 3.18 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -3.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -12.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.0% | 6.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.541 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.036 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cotillas CD | Algar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLWL | LLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Cotillas CD 62% to win. Standings: Cotillas CD 14th on 10, Algar 17th on 6.
Form
Cotillas CD, last six: L L W L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Los Garres. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Algar, last six: L L W L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–7 at home to Alcantarilla. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cotillas CD 2.05 · Algar 0.87 · total 2.92. Goals expected – 52% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Cotillas CD 2–1 Algar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 13 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Santomera | 10 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Santa Cruz | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Águilas II | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 4 |  San Javier | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  UCAM Murcia II | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Alcantarilla | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 |  Unión Molinense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Los Garres | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Bala Azul | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Balsicas Atlético | 10 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 |  Atlético Pulpileño | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Olímpico Totana | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  SFC Minerva | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  Cotillas CD | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Cartagena LU II | 9 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 |  Mazarrón FC | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 |  Algar | 9 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 |  Bullas Deportivo | 10 | -14 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cotillas CD vs Algar?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cotillas CD v Algar probabilities?
Cotillas CD win 62%, draw 21%, Algar win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Cotillas CD vs Algar?
Cotillas CD 2–1 Algar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cotillas CD vs Algar?
Cotillas CD 2.05, Algar 0.87 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Cotillas CD vs Algar?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 13.