- λ home
- 2.66
- λ away
- 0.60
- Σλ total
- 3.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 2–0 13.6%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Arenal prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas v Arenal: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas v Arenal are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (home) | 1.58 | 1.06 | 1.29 | 2.15 |
| Arenal (away) | 1.19 | 0.63 | 0.43 | 0.33 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 1.06 × 1.29 ≈ 2.15
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.47 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.76 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.66, λaway = 0.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 81.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 12.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 6.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 13.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 79.1% | 74.0% | 88.1% | 79.9% |
| X Draw | 16.5% | 20.0% | 8.7% | 15.3% |
| 2 Arenal | 4.4% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -19.3% | |
| X · Draw | 15.3% | 6.55 | 10.20 | 9.8% | +55.7% | |
| 2 · Arenal | 4.8% | 20.77 | 28.00 | 3.6% | +34.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 95.2% | 1.05 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -3.9% | |
| X2 | 20.1% | 4.98 | 7.60 | 13.2% | +52.6% | |
| 12 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -11.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 94.3% | 1.06 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Arenal | 5.7% | 17.60 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.1% | 7.11 | 8.00 | 12.5% | +12.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -15.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | 3.28 | 30.5% | +5.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -20.2% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 51.7% | 1.94 | 2.06 | 48.5% | +6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.1% | 2.04 | 3.04 | 32.9% | +49.1% | |
| BTTS no | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -32.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.8% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 8.3% | 12.07 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.517 × 2.06 − 1 = +0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.061 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | Arenal |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWWD | LLDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 80%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1st on 24, Arenal 17th on 5.
Form
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas have three wins from their last six (W D D W W D). Latest: 3–0 away at Alcúdia. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.0 conceded. 6 shut-outs in that run.
Arenal have zero wins from their last six (L L D L L L). Latest: 0–2 at home to Platges Calvià. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2.66 · Arenal 0.60 · total 3.26. High total: over 2.5 68%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 52%, odds 2.06 v fair 1.94. Most probable score: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Arenal. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 11 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 10 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 |  Platges Calvià | 11 | +12 | 24 |
| 3 |  Manacor | 10 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Constància | 11 | +10 | 20 |
| 5 |  Porreres | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Santanyí | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  PE Sant Jordi | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 8 |  Llosetense | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Formentera | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cardassar | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Binissalem | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Alcúdia | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Sineu | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 |  Andratx | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 |  Mercadal | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 |  Migjorn | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 17 |  Arenal | 11 | -16 | 5 |
| 18 |  Inter Ibiza | 11 | -21 | 5 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 11 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Arenal?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.06 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ibiza Islas Pitiusas v Arenal probabilities?
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas win 80%, draw 15%, Arenal win 5%.
What is the most probable score for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Arenal?
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Arenal is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Arenal?
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2.66, Arenal 0.60 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Arenal?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 11.