- λ home
- 1.26
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.56
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Unionistas II vs Arandina prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Unionistas II 38% · draw 23% · Arandina 39%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Unionistas II v Arandina: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Unionistas II v Arandina are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.46 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.56 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.26, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Unionistas II | – | 38.0% | 37.5% | 37.8% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 29.3% | 22.8% |
| 2 Arandina | – | 44.0% | 33.2% | 39.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Unionistas II | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -10.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -30.8% | |
| 2 · Arandina | 39.4% | 2.53 | 2.69 | 37.2% | +6.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -18.9% | |
| X2 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -11.0% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Unionistas II | 48.9% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Arandina | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.3% | 3.42 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -14.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -5.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -10.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.72 | 26.9% | -7.2% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +3.2% | |
| BTTS no | 42.4% | 2.36 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -21.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.6% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.751 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.099 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Unionistas II | Arandina |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLL | DDDDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 0-5-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Unionistas II 38%, draw 23%, Arandina 39%. Standings: Unionistas II 14th on 8, Arandina 12th on 12.
Form
Unionistas II, last six: W L L W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Mirandés II. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Arandina have zero wins from their last six (D D D D L D). Latest: 0–0 at home to La Virgen del Camino. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Unionistas II 2–2 Arandina. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Unionistas II 1.26 · Arandina 1.30 · total 2.56. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 75%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.33. Most probable score: Unionistas II 0–1 Arandina. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Feb 2026Unionistas II2–2Arandina
Tercera División RFEF Group 8 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UD Santa Marta | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Cristo Atlético | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Cultural Leonesa II | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Burgos Promesas | 10 | +10 | 20 |
| 5 |  Palencia CF | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  La Virgen del Camino | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 |  Almazán | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Bembibre | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 |  Villaralbo | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 10 |  Guijuelo | 9 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 |  Atlético Mansillés | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Arandina | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Turégano | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 |  Unionistas II | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Calasanz de Soria | 10 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 |  Colegios Diocesanos | 10 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Salamanca II | 10 | -18 | 4 |
| 18 |  Mirandés II | 10 | -10 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Unionistas II vs Arandina?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 75, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Unionistas II v Arandina probabilities?
Unionistas II win 38%, draw 23%, Arandina win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Unionistas II vs Arandina?
Unionistas II 0–1 Arandina is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Unionistas II vs Arandina?
Unionistas II 1.26, Arandina 1.30 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Unionistas II vs Arandina?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Las Pistas del Helmantico – Tercera División RFEF Group 8.