- λ home
- 1.15
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 2.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.3%
Buñol vs Acero prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Buñol v Acero: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Buñol v Acero are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buñol (home) | 1.27 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| Acero (away) | 1.09 | 0.90 | 1.03 | 1.01 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.27 × 1.04 × 0.79 ≈ 1.05
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.06 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.16 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.30 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.15, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Buñol | 35.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | 39.5% |
| X Draw | 31.9% | 19.0% | 30.9% | 24.0% |
| 2 Acero | 33.0% | 41.0% | 30.2% | 36.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Buñol | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -9.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -30.9% | |
| 2 · Acero | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.95 | 33.9% | +7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -18.7% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -11.1% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Buñol | 52.0% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Acero | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -9.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -10.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.65 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.0% | 4.99 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -14.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -8.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +6.9% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -23.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.069 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.076 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Buñol | Acero |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLLL | WDWDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 24 / 36% for home, draw, away. Standings: Buñol 7th on 15, Acero 6th on 15.
Form
Buñol, last six: D W W L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–3 away at Utiel. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Acero, last six: W D W D D D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Vall de Uxó. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Buñol 1.15 · Acero 1.09 · total 2.24. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Buñol 2–1 Acero. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 6 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Villarreal III | 11 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Levante II | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 3 |  Hércules II | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Crevillente | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 5 |  Torrent | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 |  Acero | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  Buñol | 10 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 |  Vall de Uxó | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Saguntino | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Eldense B | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Roda | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Ontinyent 1931 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 |  Torrellano | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  Jove Español | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Atzeneta | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Utiel | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 |  SC Torrevieja | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 |  Soneja | 10 | -8 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 6 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Buñol vs Acero?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Buñol v Acero probabilities?
Buñol win 40%, draw 24%, Acero win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Buñol vs Acero?
Buñol 2–1 Acero is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Buñol vs Acero?
Buñol 1.15, Acero 1.09 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Buñol vs Acero?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 6.