- λ home
- 1.89
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.1%
Touring vs Pasaia KE prediction & xG model: Touring to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Touring 61% · draw 24% · Pasaia KE 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Touring v Pasaia KE: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Touring v Pasaia KE are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.85 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.66 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.89, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Touring | – | 63.0% | 57.2% | 60.5% |
| X Draw | – | 24.0% | 24.6% | 24.3% |
| 2 Pasaia KE | – | 13.0% | 18.2% | 15.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Touring pick | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -5.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.3% | 4.12 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -12.2% | |
| 2 · Pasaia KE | 15.2% | 6.59 | 4.90 | 20.4% | -25.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -7.6% | |
| X2 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -17.5% | |
| 12 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -10.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Touring | 80.0% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pasaia KE | 20.0% | 4.99 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.8% | 3.87 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -15.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -6.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -10.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.5% | 3.39 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -9.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -3.9% | |
| BTTS no | 47.5% | 2.11 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -14.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.7% | 6.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.605 × 1.56 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Touring | Pasaia KE |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWLD | LLLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Touring at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Touring 8th on 15, Pasaia KE 15th on 10.
Form
Touring, last six: L D W W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–4 away at Leioa. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Pasaia KE have one win from their last six (L L L L L W). Latest: 1–3 away at Lagun Onak. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Touring 1.89 · Pasaia KE 0.85 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection
Selection: Touring to win, probability 61%, odds 1.56 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Touring 1–0 Pasaia KE. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Leioa | 10 | +16 | 22 |
| 2 |  Aurrerá Vitoria | 10 | +3 | 22 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés III | 10 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 |  Real Sociedad III | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Derio | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 6 |  Durango | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 |  Aretxabaleta | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 |  Touring | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Beasain | 10 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 |  San Ignacio | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Eibar III | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sodupe | 10 | -8 | 14 |
| 13 |  Lagun Onak | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  R. Union B | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 |  Pasaia KE | 10 | -9 | 10 |
| 16 |  Santurtzi | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 |  Erandio | 10 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Amurrio Club | 10 | -21 | 1 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Touring vs Pasaia KE?
The Model pick is Touring to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.56 by the bookmakers.
What are the Touring v Pasaia KE probabilities?
Touring win 61%, draw 24%, Pasaia KE win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Touring vs Pasaia KE?
Touring 1–0 Pasaia KE is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Touring vs Pasaia KE?
Touring 1.89, Pasaia KE 0.85 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Touring vs Pasaia KE?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 4.