- λ home
- 1.01
- λ away
- 1.37
- Σλ total
- 2.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Revilla vs Cayón prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Revilla 30% · draw 26% · Cayón 44%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Revilla v Cayón: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Revilla v Cayón are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revilla (home) | 1.39 | 1.35 | 0.49 | 0.92 |
| Cayón (away) | 1.22 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.39 × 1.35 × 0.49 ≈ 0.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.23 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.55 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.01, λaway = 1.37
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 27.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Revilla | 25.5% | 40.0% | 28.6% | 30.2% |
| X Draw | 29.7% | 11.0% | 30.5% | 25.7% |
| 2 Cayón | 44.8% | 49.0% | 40.9% | 44.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Revilla | 30.2% | 3.32 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -24.9% | |
| 2 · Cayón | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -3.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -15.7% | |
| X2 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -12.7% | |
| 12 | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Revilla | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cayón | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -11.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -5.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -12.7% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -19.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -14.4% | |
| BTTS no | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -3.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.2% | 4.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.6% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.552 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Revilla | Cayón |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWWD | WWWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| BTTS | 83% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 100% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Cayón narrowly ahead at 44%; Revilla 30%. Standings: Revilla 5th on 21, Cayón 2nd on 23.
Form
Revilla, last six: W D W W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Guarnizo. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Cayón: W W W W D W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Solares. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.0 conceded. 6 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Cayón 2–0 Revilla. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Revilla 1.01 · Cayón 1.37 · total 2.38. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 55%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.81. Most probable score: Revilla 0–1 Cayón. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Apr 2026Cayón2–0Revilla
Tercera División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tropezón | 10 | +16 | 26 |
| 2 |  Cayón | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Sámano | 11 | +16 | 22 |
| 4 |  Laredo | 11 | +12 | 22 |
| 5 |  Revilla | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 6 |  Bezana | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Vimenor | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  Torina | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 |  Atlético Mineros | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |  Atlético Albericia | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Solares | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 |  Naval Reinosa | 11 | -12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Castro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 |  Guarnizo | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Selaya | 11 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Barquereño | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Escobedo | 11 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 |  Velarde | 11 | -12 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Revilla vs Cayón?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Revilla v Cayón probabilities?
Revilla win 30%, draw 26%, Cayón win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Revilla vs Cayón?
Revilla 0–1 Cayón is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Revilla vs Cayón?
Revilla 1.01, Cayón 1.37 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Revilla vs Cayón?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 3.