- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 2.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Laredo vs Torina prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Laredo 49% · draw 17% · Torina 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Laredo v Torina: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Laredo v Torina are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.54 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Laredo | – | 41.0% | 59.4% | 48.7% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 24.5% | 16.7% |
| 2 Torina | – | 48.0% | 16.1% | 34.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Laredo | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -26.9% | |
| X · Draw | 16.7% | 6.00 | 3.64 | 27.5% | -39.3% | |
| 2 · Torina | 34.6% | 2.89 | 5.55 | 18.0% | +92.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -30.7% | |
| X2 | 51.3% | 1.95 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +12.8% | |
| 12 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -1.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Laredo | 58.5% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Torina | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.4% | 3.41 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -10.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -10.0% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.1% | 3.98 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -14.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -4.1% | |
| BTTS no | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -13.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.2% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.6% | 4.23 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.541 × 1.72 − 1 = -0.070 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Laredo | Torina |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLWW | DWDDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-5-0 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Laredo ahead at 49%, against 35% for Torina and 17% for the draw. Standings: Laredo 7th on 19, Torina 8th on 16.
Form
Sequence for Laredo: D L L L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Velarde. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for Torina: D W D D D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Bezana. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Laredo 1.39 · Torina 1.09 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Laredo 1–0 Torina. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tropezón | 10 | +16 | 26 |
| 2 |  Cayón | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Revilla | 10 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Bezana | 10 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 |  Vimenor | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 |  Sámano | 10 | +14 | 19 |
| 7 |  Laredo | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 8 |  Torina | 10 | +7 | 16 |
| 9 |  Atlético Mineros | 10 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 |  Solares | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 |  Atlético Albericia | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Castro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Guarnizo | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 |  Barquereño | 10 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 |  Escobedo | 10 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Selaya | 10 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Velarde | 10 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Naval Reinosa | 10 | -13 | 6 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Laredo vs Torina?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.72 by the bookmakers.
What are the Laredo v Torina probabilities?
Laredo win 49%, draw 17%, Torina win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Laredo vs Torina?
Laredo 1–0 Torina is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Laredo vs Torina?
Laredo 1.39, Torina 1.09 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Laredo vs Torina?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:30 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 3.