- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 1.74
- Σλ total
- 3.13
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.6%
Silva vs Villalbés prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Silva v Villalbés: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Silva v Villalbés are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.13 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 1.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Silva | – | 29.0% | 31.9% | 30.2% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 32.4% | 24.6% |
| 2 Villalbés | – | 52.0% | 35.7% | 45.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Silva | 30.2% | 3.31 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -15.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.6% | 4.06 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -32.2% | |
| 2 · Villalbés | 45.1% | 2.21 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +12.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -21.0% | |
| X2 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -5.1% | |
| 12 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +5.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Silva | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Villalbés | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.1% | 5.54 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.2% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +0.3% | |
| BTTS no | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -16.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.1% | 3.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 35.4% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.542 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.003 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.004 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Silva | Villalbés |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDWW | DWWDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Villalbés narrowly ahead at 45%; Silva 30%. Standings: Silva 3rd on 17, Villalbés 9th on 14.
Form
Silva, last six: L L W D W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–4 away at Portonovo SD. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Villalbés, last six: D W W D W D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Boiro. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Silva 1.39 · Villalbés 1.74 · total 3.13. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Silva 1–2 Villalbés. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boiro | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Sarriana | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Silva | 10 | +1 | 17 |
| 4 |  Barco | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Atlético Arteixo | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Portonovo SD | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  Estradense | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 |  Lalin | 10 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Villalbés | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pontevedra II | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Antela | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alondras | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |  Somozas | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 |  Celtiga | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Arenteiro | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Coruña | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo III | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Viveiro | 10 | -6 | 8 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Silva vs Villalbés?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Silva v Villalbés probabilities?
Silva win 30%, draw 25%, Villalbés win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Silva vs Villalbés?
Silva 1–2 Villalbés is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Silva vs Villalbés?
Silva 1.39, Villalbés 1.74 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Silva vs Villalbés?
Saturday 3 October 2026, 15:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 1.