- λ home
- 1.79
- λ away
- 0.74
- Σλ total
- 2.53
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.2%
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Aldosivi Res. prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 v Aldosivi Res.: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 v Aldosivi Res. are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (home) | 1.66 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Aldosivi Res. (away) | 1.38 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.77 × 0.92 ≈ 1.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.79 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.09 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.91 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.53 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.79, λaway = 0.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 48.1% | 62.0% | 62.8% | 62.3% |
| X Draw | 32.9% | 24.0% | 21.5% | 22.9% |
| 2 Aldosivi Res. | 19.0% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 14.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -11.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.9% | 4.36 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -4.8% | |
| 2 · Aldosivi Res. | 14.7% | 6.78 | 5.65 | 17.7% | -16.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -9.6% | |
| 12 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -12.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Aldosivi Res. | 19.1% | 5.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -12.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.6% | 3.90 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -0.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -15.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.06 | 48.5% | +0.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.0% | 3.34 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -22.4% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -2.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -16.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.2% | 7.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.700 × 1.39 − 1 = -0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | Aldosivi Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDDD | LLWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Gimnasia Mendoza 2 62% to win. Standings: Gimnasia Mendoza 2 9th on 29, Aldosivi Res. 28th on 16.
Form
Sequence for Gimnasia Mendoza 2: W W D D D D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at Gimnasia La Plata Res.. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Aldosivi Res., last six: L L W D W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Barracas Central Res.. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Aldosivi Res. 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza 2. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1.79 · Aldosivi Res. 0.74 · total 2.53. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.39 v fair 1.43. Most probable score: Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1–0 Aldosivi Res.. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 Jun 2026Aldosivi Res.1–0Gimnasia Mendoza 2
Reserve League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vélez Sársfield Res. | 20 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | +24 | 39 |
| 3 |  Racing Club Res. | 21 | +7 | 39 |
| 4 |  River Plate Res. | 21 | +9 | 37 |
| 5 |  Independiente Res. | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 6 |  Lanús Res. | 19 | +13 | 35 |
| 7 |  Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | +9 | 34 |
| 8 |  Quilmes 2 | 18 | +8 | 33 |
| 9 |  Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | +14 | 32 |
| 10 |  Atlético Tucumán Res. | 19 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 |  Unión Santa Fe Res. | 18 | +4 | 29 |
| 12 |  Estudiantes La Plata Res | 18 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 |  Argentinos Juniors Res. | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 14 |  Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | -2 | 27 |
| 15 |  Talleres Córdoba Res. | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 16 |  Huracán Res. | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 |  Rosario Central Res. | 18 | +3 | 26 |
| 18 |  Platense Res. | 18 | -3 | 26 |
| 19 |  Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 20 |  Independiente Riva. Res. | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 21 |  Instituto Res. | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 22 |  San Lorenzo Res. | 18 | -2 | 24 |
| 23 |  Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | +2 | 23 |
| 24 |  Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | -3 | 23 |
| 25 |  Banfield Res. | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 26 |  Ferro 2 | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 27 |  Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | -12 | 19 |
| 28 |  Colón Res. | 18 | -8 | 18 |
| 29 |  Aldosivi Res. | 18 | -11 | 18 |
| 30 |  Barracas Central Res. | 18 | -13 | 17 |
| 31 |  Sarmiento Res. | 18 | -10 | 16 |
| 32 |  Tigre Res. | 18 | -10 | 16 |
| 33 |  Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | -10 | 15 |
| 34 |  Atl. Rafaela 2 | 18 | -15 | 12 |
| 35 |  Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | -23 | 11 |
| 36 |  San Martín San Juan Res. | 18 | -43 | 8 |
More Reserve League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Aldosivi Res.?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.39 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gimnasia Mendoza 2 v Aldosivi Res. probabilities?
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 win 62%, draw 23%, Aldosivi Res. win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Aldosivi Res.?
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1–0 Aldosivi Res. is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Aldosivi Res.?
Gimnasia Mendoza 2 1.79, Aldosivi Res. 0.74 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Aldosivi Res.?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Victor Legrotaglie – Reserve League.