- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 0.70
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.2%
Colón Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. prediction & xG model: Colón Res. to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Colón Res. v Central Córdoba SdE Res.: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipColón Res. to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Colón Res. v Central Córdoba SdE Res. are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colón Res. (home) | 1.66 | 0.66 | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Central Córdoba SdE Res. (away) | 1.38 | 0.74 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.66 × 1.10 ≈ 1.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.21 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.40 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 0.70
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Colón Res. | 39.7% | 72.0% | 47.4% | 61.7% |
| X Draw | 30.4% | 21.0% | 28.3% | 24.1% |
| 2 Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 29.9% | 7.0% | 24.3% | 14.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Colón Res. pick | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +15.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.1% | 4.16 | 3.15 | 31.7% | -24.2% | |
| 2 · Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 14.3% | 7.00 | 3.66 | 27.3% | -47.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +1.1% | |
| X2 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -34.8% | |
| 12 | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Colón Res. | 81.2% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18.8% | 5.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.6% | 3.16 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -13.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.4% | 2.30 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -7.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -8.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.3% | 4.30 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -11.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +1.9% | |
| BTTS no | 46.6% | 2.14 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -18.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.8% | 7.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.617 × 1.88 − 1 = +0.159 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.181 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Colón Res. | Central Córdoba SdE Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLLL | LLLLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Colón Res. 62% to win. Standings: Colón Res. 33rd on 15, Central Córdoba SdE Res. 34th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Colón Res.: D W W L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Huracán Res.. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Central Córdoba SdE Res.: L L L L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at San Martín San Juan Res.. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Central Córdoba SdE Res. 2–0 Colón Res.. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Colón Res. 1.73 · Central Córdoba SdE Res. 0.70 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Colón Res. to win, probability 62%, odds 1.88 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Colón Res. 1–0 Central Córdoba SdE Res.. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 Jun 2026Central Córdoba SdE Res.2–0Colón Res.
Reserve League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vélez Sársfield Res. | 20 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | +24 | 39 |
| 3 |  Racing Club Res. | 21 | +7 | 39 |
| 4 |  River Plate Res. | 21 | +9 | 37 |
| 5 |  Independiente Res. | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 6 |  Lanús Res. | 19 | +13 | 35 |
| 7 |  Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | +9 | 34 |
| 8 |  Quilmes 2 | 18 | +8 | 33 |
| 9 |  Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | +14 | 32 |
| 10 |  Atlético Tucumán Res. | 19 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 |  Unión Santa Fe Res. | 18 | +4 | 29 |
| 12 |  Estudiantes La Plata Res | 18 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 |  Argentinos Juniors Res. | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 14 |  Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | -2 | 27 |
| 15 |  Talleres Córdoba Res. | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 16 |  Huracán Res. | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 |  Rosario Central Res. | 18 | +3 | 26 |
| 18 |  Platense Res. | 18 | -3 | 26 |
| 19 |  Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 20 |  Independiente Riva. Res. | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 21 |  Instituto Res. | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 22 |  San Lorenzo Res. | 18 | -2 | 24 |
| 23 |  Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | +2 | 23 |
| 24 |  Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | -3 | 23 |
| 25 |  Banfield Res. | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 26 |  Ferro 2 | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 27 |  Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | -12 | 19 |
| 28 |  Colón Res. | 18 | -8 | 18 |
| 29 |  Aldosivi Res. | 18 | -11 | 18 |
| 30 |  Barracas Central Res. | 18 | -13 | 17 |
| 31 |  Sarmiento Res. | 18 | -10 | 16 |
| 32 |  Tigre Res. | 18 | -10 | 16 |
| 33 |  Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | -10 | 15 |
| 34 |  Atl. Rafaela 2 | 18 | -15 | 12 |
| 35 |  Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | -23 | 11 |
| 36 |  San Martín San Juan Res. | 18 | -43 | 8 |
More Reserve League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Colón Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.?
The Model pick is Colón Res. to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.88 by the bookmakers.
What are the Colón Res. v Central Córdoba SdE Res. probabilities?
Colón Res. win 62%, draw 24%, Central Córdoba SdE Res. win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Colón Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.?
Colón Res. 1–0 Central Córdoba SdE Res. is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Colón Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.?
Colón Res. 1.73, Central Córdoba SdE Res. 0.70 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Colón Res. vs Central Córdoba SdE Res.?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Reserve League.