- λ home
- 0.94
- λ away
- 1.76
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.8%
Banfield Res. vs Racing Club Res. prediction & xG model: Racing Club Res. to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Banfield Res. v Racing Club Res.: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipRacing Club Res. to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Banfield Res. v Racing Club Res. are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (33 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield Res. (home) | 1.66 | 0.73 | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| Racing Club Res. (away) | 1.38 | 1.20 | 1.03 | 1.70 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.73 × 1.10 ≈ 1.33
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.03 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.61 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.77 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.94, λaway = 1.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Banfield Res. | 29.8% | 19.0% | 26.8% | 22.3% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 13.0% | 26.5% | 18.7% |
| 2 Racing Club Res. | 45.4% | 68.0% | 46.6% | 59.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Banfield Res. | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -26.0% | |
| X · Draw | 18.7% | 5.35 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -37.2% | |
| 2 · Racing Club Res. pick | 59.0% | 1.69 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +12.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.0% | 2.44 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -31.2% | |
| X2 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.2% | |
| 12 | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -0.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Banfield Res. | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Racing Club Res. | 72.6% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -8.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -6.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -13.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -7.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.4% | 1.65 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -1.5% | |
| BTTS no | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.1% | 5.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.1% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.590 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.128 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.140 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Banfield Res. | Racing Club Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWLD | DWLLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 22%. Standings: Banfield Res. 30th on 16, Racing Club Res. 21st on 20.
Form
Sequence for Banfield Res.: W D L W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Sarmiento Res.. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Racing Club Res.: D W L L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Rosario Central Res.. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Racing Club Res. 1–2 Banfield Res.. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Banfield Res. 0.94 · Racing Club Res. 1.76 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Racing Club Res. to win, probability 59%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Banfield Res. 0–1 Racing Club Res.. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 8 Jun 2026Racing Club Res.1–2Banfield Res.
Reserve League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vélez Sársfield Res. | 20 | +29 | 47 |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors Res. | 20 | +24 | 39 |
| 3 |  Racing Club Res. | 21 | +7 | 39 |
| 4 |  River Plate Res. | 21 | +9 | 37 |
| 5 |  Independiente Res. | 19 | +19 | 36 |
| 6 |  Lanús Res. | 19 | +13 | 35 |
| 7 |  Newell's Old Boys Res. | 19 | +9 | 34 |
| 8 |  Quilmes 2 | 18 | +8 | 33 |
| 9 |  Defensa y Justicia Res. | 18 | +14 | 32 |
| 10 |  Atlético Tucumán Res. | 19 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 |  Unión Santa Fe Res. | 18 | +4 | 29 |
| 12 |  Estudiantes La Plata Res | 18 | +9 | 28 |
| 13 |  Argentinos Juniors Res. | 18 | +6 | 28 |
| 14 |  Belgrano Córdoba Res. | 18 | -2 | 27 |
| 15 |  Talleres Córdoba Res. | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 16 |  Huracán Res. | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 17 |  Rosario Central Res. | 18 | +3 | 26 |
| 18 |  Platense Res. | 18 | -3 | 26 |
| 19 |  Deportivo Riestra Res. | 18 | +7 | 25 |
| 20 |  Independiente Riva. Res. | 18 | 0 | 24 |
| 21 |  Instituto Res. | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 22 |  San Lorenzo Res. | 18 | -2 | 24 |
| 23 |  Gimnasia La Plata Res. | 18 | +2 | 23 |
| 24 |  Gimnasia Mendoza 2 | 18 | -3 | 23 |
| 25 |  Banfield Res. | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 26 |  Ferro 2 | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 27 |  Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 18 | -12 | 19 |
| 28 |  Colón Res. | 18 | -8 | 18 |
| 29 |  Aldosivi Res. | 18 | -11 | 18 |
| 30 |  Barracas Central Res. | 18 | -13 | 17 |
| 31 |  Sarmiento Res. | 18 | -10 | 16 |
| 32 |  Tigre Res. | 18 | -10 | 16 |
| 33 |  Godoy Cruz Res. | 18 | -10 | 15 |
| 34 |  Atl. Rafaela 2 | 18 | -15 | 12 |
| 35 |  Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 | 18 | -23 | 11 |
| 36 |  San Martín San Juan Res. | 18 | -43 | 8 |
More Reserve League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Banfield Res. vs Racing Club Res.?
The Model pick is Racing Club Res. to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Banfield Res. v Racing Club Res. probabilities?
Banfield Res. win 22%, draw 19%, Racing Club Res. win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Banfield Res. vs Racing Club Res.?
Banfield Res. 0–1 Racing Club Res. is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Banfield Res. vs Racing Club Res.?
Banfield Res. 0.94, Racing Club Res. 1.76 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Banfield Res. vs Racing Club Res.?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – Reserve League.