Belgium Reserve Pro League Fri 13 Nov 2026 Full time

RAAL La Louviere U21

LDDWL

37%P(1)19%P(X)43%P(2)

λ home: 1.84
λ away: 1.99
Σλ total: 3.83
P(over 2.5): 73%
P(BTTS): 73%
Modal score: 1–1 8.0%

Francs Borains U21 vs RAAL La Louviere U21 prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Francs Borains U21 v RAAL La Louviere U21: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipOver 3.5 goals✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Francs Borains U21 v RAAL La Louviere U21 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Francs Borains U21 (home)	1.66	1.37	1.18	2.68
RAAL La Louviere U21 (away)	1.38	1.00	1.37	1.89

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.37 × 1.18 ≈ 2.68

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	4.57	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.91	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.76	30%
Blended total λ	3.83	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.84, λ_away = 1.99

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Francs Borains U21 λ = 1.84

016.0%

129.3%

226.9%

316.4%

47.5%

5+3.9%

RAAL La Louviere U21 λ = 1.99

013.7%

127.2%

227.1%

318.0%

48.9%

5+5.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Fra \ RAA012345+

02.24.34.32.91.40.8

14.08.07.95.32.61.5

23.77.37.34.82.41.4

32.24.54.43.01.50.9

41.02.12.01.40.7·

5+0.51.11.10.7··

Σ home-win cells: 36.3%
Σ draw cells: 21.2%
Σ away-win cells: 42.4%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 8.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Francs Borains U21	54.8%	39.0%	34.9%	37.3%
X Draw	18.6%	16.0%	23.8%	19.3%
2 RAAL La Louviere U21	26.6%	45.0%	41.2%	43.4%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Francs Borains U21	37.3%	2.68	2.55	39.2%	-4.9%
X · Draw	19.3%	5.19	3.74	26.7%	-27.9%
2 · RAAL La Louviere U21	43.4%	2.30	2.16	46.3%	-6.2%
Double chance
1X	56.6%	1.77	1.52	65.8%	-14.0%
X2	62.7%	1.59	1.38	72.5%	-13.5%
12	80.7%	1.24	1.17	85.5%	-5.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Francs Borains U21	46.2%	2.16	–	–	–
DNB RAAL La Louviere U21	53.8%	1.86	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	89.5%	1.12	–	–	–
Under 1.5	10.5%	9.51	–	–	–
Over 2.5	73.0%	1.37	1.25	80.0%	-8.8%
Under 2.5	27.0%	3.70	3.28	30.5%	-11.3%
Over 3.5 pick	53.8%	1.86	1.69	59.2%	-9.1%
Under 3.5	46.2%	2.16	2.01	49.8%	-7.1%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	72.8%	1.37	1.25	80.0%	-9.0%
BTTS no	27.2%	3.67	3.34	29.9%	-9.1%
Half-time
HT 1	31.0%	3.23	–	–	–
HT X	34.2%	2.92	–	–	–
HT 2	34.8%	2.87	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 3.5 goals

Probability53.8%

Fair odds1.86

Best odds1.69

EV per unit-9.1%

EV = 0.538 × 1.69 − 1 = -0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Francs Borains U21	RAAL La Louviere U21
Sequence	WWDDLL	LWDDLW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-2-2	2-2-2
Points per match	1.33	1.33
Goals for / match	2.50	1.17
Goals against / match	2.67	2.00
Over 2.5	67%	67%
BTTS	83%	83%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	0%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

No clear favourite in the grid – Francs Borains U21 37%, draw 19%, RAAL La Louviere U21 43%. Standings: Francs Borains U21 4th on 11, RAAL La Louviere U21 5th on 11.

Form

Sequence for Francs Borains U21: W W D D L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 5–3 at home to Sp. Hasselt U21. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.

Sequence for RAAL La Louviere U21: L W D D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–4 at home to Lierse K. U21. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Apr 2026): Francs Borains U21 2–3 RAAL La Louviere U21. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Francs Borains U21 1.84 · RAAL La Louviere U21 1.99 · total 3.83. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 73% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.69 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Francs Borains U21 1–3 RAAL La Louviere U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

24 Apr 2026Francs Borains U212–3RAAL La Louviere U21

Reserve Pro League table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	7	6	0	1	+22	18
2	Westerlo U21	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Kortrijk U21	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Francs Borains U21	7	3	2	2	+2	11
5	RAAL La Louviere U21	7	3	2	2	-4	11
6	Lierse K. U21	8	3	1	4	0	10
7	RFC de Liege U21	6	3	1	2	-4	10
8	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	8	3	1	4	-9	10
9	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	9	3	0	6	+3	9
10	RWDM U21	7	2	2	3	-5	8
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	8	0	1	7	-19	1