- λ home
- 1.38
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 2.84
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Zvijezda 09 vs Potkozarje prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Zvijezda 09 38% · draw 20% · Potkozarje 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Zvijezda 09 v Potkozarje: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Zvijezda 09 v Potkozarje are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.84 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.38, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Zvijezda 09 | – | 34.0% | 43.1% | 37.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 25.3% | 20.5% |
| 2 Potkozarje | – | 49.0% | 31.6% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.131 → 13.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Zvijezda 09 | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -22.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -28.3% | |
| 2 · Potkozarje | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +16.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -22.4% | |
| X2 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +0.7% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Zvijezda 09 | 47.6% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Potkozarje | 52.4% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -8.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -2.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.6% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.74 | 57.5% | +7.3% | |
| BTTS no | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.3% | 3.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.7% | 3.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.617 × 1.74 − 1 = +0.073 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.098 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Zvijezda 09 | Potkozarje |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLDL | WLLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 20 / 42% for home, draw, away.
Form
Zvijezda 09, last six: L L L L D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 2–3 away at Famos Vojkovići. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Potkozarje have three wins from their last six (W L L W L W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Kozara Gradiška. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Potkozarje 3–2 Zvijezda 09. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Zvijezda 09 1.38 · Potkozarje 1.46 · total 2.84. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.74 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Zvijezda 09 1–2 Potkozarje. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Sep 2026Potkozarje3–2Zvijezda 09
1st League RS table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laktaši | 24 | +29 | 48 |
| 2 |  BSK Banja Luka | 24 | +19 | 47 |
| 3 |  Leotar | 24 | +22 | 46 |
| 4 |  Kozara Gradiška | 24 | -1 | 36 |
| 5 |  Slavija | 24 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 |  Drina Zvornik | 24 | +16 | 34 |
| 7 |  Zvijezda 09 | 24 | -8 | 30 |
| 8 |  Sutjeska Foča | 24 | -3 | 29 |
| 9 |  FK Romanija Pale | 24 | -7 | 28 |
| 10 |  Velež Nevesinje | 24 | -14 | 27 |
| 11 |  Famos Vojkovići | 24 | -18 | 27 |
| 12 |  Omarska | 24 | -23 | 25 |
| 13 |  FK Vlasenica | 24 | -17 | 19 |
More 1st League RS predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Zvijezda 09 vs Potkozarje?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.74 by the bookmakers.
What are the Zvijezda 09 v Potkozarje probabilities?
Zvijezda 09 win 38%, draw 20%, Potkozarje win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Zvijezda 09 vs Potkozarje?
Zvijezda 09 1–2 Potkozarje is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Zvijezda 09 vs Potkozarje?
Zvijezda 09 1.38, Potkozarje 1.46 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Zvijezda 09 vs Potkozarje?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – 1st League RS.