- λ home
- 1.41
- λ away
- 1.14
- Σλ total
- 2.56
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Latina vs Campobasso FC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Latina v Campobasso FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Latina v Campobasso FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latina (home) | 1.39 | 0.93 | 1.23 | 1.59 |
| Campobasso FC (away) | 1.19 | 1.08 | 0.84 | 1.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.39 × 0.93 × 1.23 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.66 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.54 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.56 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.41, λaway = 1.14
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Latina | 48.6% | 46.0% | 44.2% | 45.2% |
| X Draw | 26.3% | 18.0% | 28.3% | 22.3% |
| 2 Campobasso FC | 25.2% | 36.0% | 27.5% | 32.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.103 → 10.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Latina | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.5% | |
| 2 · Campobasso FC | 32.4% | 3.08 | 3.30 | 30.3% | +7.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -13.5% | |
| X2 | 54.8% | 1.83 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -14.0% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Latina | 58.3% | 1.72 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Campobasso FC | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -6.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -5.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -5.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.5% | 3.77 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -9.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +0.8% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -16.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.2% | 3.11 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.4% | 4.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.008 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.010 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Latina | Campobasso FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDWW | DWWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Latina 45%, draw 22%, Campobasso FC 32%. Standings: Latina 10th on 18, Campobasso FC 9th on 19.
Form
Latina, last six: L D L D W W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Torres. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Sequence for Campobasso FC: D W W W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Livorno. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Campobasso FC 2–0 Latina. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Latina 1.41 · Campobasso FC 1.14 · total 2.56. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Latina 2–1 Campobasso FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Oct 2026Campobasso FC2–0Latina
Serie C Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spezia | 13 | +19 | 35 |
| 2 |  Ravenna | 13 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 |  Grosseto | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pescara | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 |  Torres | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 |  Reggiana | 14 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Livorno | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 |  Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Campobasso FC | 14 | -6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Latina | 14 | +2 | 18 |
| 11 |  Atalanta II | 13 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Pineto | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Perugia | 13 | -3 | 17 |
| 14 |  Vado | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 |  Forli | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pianese | 14 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 |  Gubbio | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 |  Sambenedettese | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |  Ostia Mare | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 |  Vis Pesaro | 14 | -14 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Latina vs Campobasso FC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Latina v Campobasso FC probabilities?
Latina win 45%, draw 22%, Campobasso FC win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Latina vs Campobasso FC?
Latina 2–1 Campobasso FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Latina vs Campobasso FC?
Latina 1.41, Campobasso FC 1.14 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Latina vs Campobasso FC?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Stadio Domenico Francioni – Serie C Girone B.