- λ home
- 1.84
- λ away
- 0.64
- Σλ total
- 2.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.4%
Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi prediction & xG model: Ospitaletto to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ospitaletto v Dolomiti Bellunesi: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOspitaletto to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ospitaletto v Dolomiti Bellunesi are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto (home) | 1.30 | 1.03 | 1.29 | 1.73 |
| Dolomiti Bellunesi (away) | 1.26 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.30 × 1.03 × 1.29 ≈ 1.73
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.41 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.44 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.84, λaway = 0.64
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ospitaletto | 61.5% | 68.0% | 61.0% | 65.1% |
| X Draw | 24.4% | 23.0% | 25.1% | 23.9% |
| 2 Dolomiti Bellunesi | 14.0% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 11.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ospitaletto pick | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -3.7% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.19 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -14.0% | |
| 2 · Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11.1% | 9.05 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -28.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.9% | 1.12 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -4.8% | |
| X2 | 34.9% | 2.86 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -16.2% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ospitaletto | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Dolomiti Bellunesi | 14.5% | 6.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -5.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -5.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -6.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -4.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -11.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.3% | 2.03 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +10.9% | |
| BTTS no | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -20.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.1% | 8.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.651 × 1.48 − 1 = -0.037 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ospitaletto | Dolomiti Bellunesi |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLWD | LLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Ospitaletto 65% to win. Standings: Ospitaletto 4th on 25, Dolomiti Bellunesi 19th on 10.
Form
Ospitaletto, last six: W D L L W D – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Desenzano Calvina. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Dolomiti Bellunesi: L L L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–4 away at PRO Vercelli. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ospitaletto 1.84 · Dolomiti Bellunesi 0.64 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ospitaletto to win, probability 65%, odds 1.48 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Ospitaletto 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie C Girone A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Brescia | 14 | +16 | 31 |
| 2 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 3 |  Trento | 14 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 14 | +9 | 25 |
| 5 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 14 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 14 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 14 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Athletic Carpi | 14 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 |  Giana Erminio | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 |  Renate | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi?
The Model pick is Ospitaletto to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.48 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ospitaletto v Dolomiti Bellunesi probabilities?
Ospitaletto win 65%, draw 24%, Dolomiti Bellunesi win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi?
Ospitaletto 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi?
Ospitaletto 1.84, Dolomiti Bellunesi 0.64 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Ospitaletto vs Dolomiti Bellunesi?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni – Serie C Girone A.