- λ home
- 0.85
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 2.31
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.5%
Juventus U23 vs Treviso prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Juventus U23 27% · draw 26% · Treviso 48%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Juventus U23 v Treviso: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Juventus U23 v Treviso are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (13 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus U23 (home) | 1.30 | 0.81 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| Treviso (away) | 1.26 | 0.91 | 1.24 | 1.41 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.30 × 0.81 × 0.65 ≈ 0.69
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.10 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.23 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.31 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.85, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 51.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Juventus U23 | 17.9% | 32.0% | 30.9% | 26.6% |
| X Draw | 28.9% | 17.0% | 27.5% | 25.6% |
| 2 Treviso | 53.1% | 51.0% | 41.6% | 47.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Juventus U23 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -22.8% | |
| X · Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -16.9% | |
| 2 · Treviso | 47.8% | 2.09 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +2.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.2% | 1.92 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -18.1% | |
| X2 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.6% | |
| 12 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Juventus U23 | 35.8% | 2.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Treviso | 64.2% | 1.56 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.9% | 3.35 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +4.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -14.0% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +4.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.6% | 4.06 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -20.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +0.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -13.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.3% | 5.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.547 × 1.90 − 1 = +0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Juventus U23 | Treviso |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWDL | WLWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 27%. Standings: Juventus U23 18th on 11, Treviso 6th on 22.
Form
Juventus U23, last six: L D L W D L – one win in total. Latest: 0–4 away at Lecco. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Treviso, last six: W L W W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Novara. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Juventus U23 0.85 · Treviso 1.46 · total 2.31. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 55%, odds 1.90 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Juventus U23 0–1 Treviso. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie C Girone A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Brescia | 14 | +16 | 31 |
| 2 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 3 |  Trento | 14 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 14 | +9 | 25 |
| 5 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 14 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 14 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 14 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Athletic Carpi | 14 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 |  Giana Erminio | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 |  Renate | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Juventus U23 vs Treviso?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.90 by the bookmakers.
What are the Juventus U23 v Treviso probabilities?
Juventus U23 win 27%, draw 26%, Treviso win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Juventus U23 vs Treviso?
Juventus U23 0–1 Treviso is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Juventus U23 vs Treviso?
Juventus U23 0.85, Treviso 1.46 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Juventus U23 vs Treviso?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:30 WAT, at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta – Serie C Girone A.