- λ home
- 2.11
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 3.11
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.0%
West Ham W vs Charlton Athletic W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: West Ham W 63% · draw 22% · Charlton Athletic W 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
West Ham W v Charlton Athletic W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for West Ham W v Charlton Athletic W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham W (home) | 1.61 | 0.81 | 1.59 | 2.08 |
| Charlton Athletic W (away) | 1.52 | 0.63 | 1.06 | 1.01 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 0.81 × 1.59 ≈ 2.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.39 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.11 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.11, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 West Ham W | 61.2% | 61.0% | 64.5% | 62.5% |
| X Draw | 21.5% | 23.0% | 22.6% | 22.3% |
| 2 Charlton Athletic W | 17.3% | 16.0% | 12.9% | 15.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · West Ham W | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -12.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -10.8% | |
| 2 · Charlton Athletic W | 15.2% | 6.59 | 7.00 | 14.3% | +6.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -8.4% | |
| X2 | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +1.1% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB West Ham W | 80.5% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Charlton Athletic W | 19.5% | 5.12 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.9% | 4.79 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -16.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.73 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -11.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -1.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -10.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +14.9% | |
| BTTS no | 41.1% | 2.43 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -28.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.0% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.9% | 5.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.589 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.149 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.157 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | West Ham W | Charlton Athletic W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLW | WLLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – West Ham W 63% to win. Standings: West Ham W 11th on 9, Charlton Athletic W 14th on 0.
Form
West Ham W, last six: L W W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–5 away at Manchester City W. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Charlton Athletic W have two wins from their last six (W L L L L W). Latest: 1–0 at home to Ipswich Town W. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Charlton Athletic W 1–2 West Ham W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG West Ham W 2.11 · Charlton Athletic W 1.00 · total 3.11. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: West Ham W 2–1 Charlton Athletic W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Oct 2026Charlton Athletic W1–2West Ham W
FA WSL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chelsea W | 10 | +24 | 26 |
| 2 |  Manchester City W | 10 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 |  London City Lionesses W | 9 | +13 | 19 |
| 4 |  Manchester United W | 10 | +1 | 18 |
| 5 |  Tottenham Hotspur W | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  Arsenal W | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 |  Everton W | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 |  Liverpool W | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Brighton W | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa W | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 |  West Ham W | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 |  Crystal Palace W | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 |  Birmingham City W | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 |  Charlton Athletic W | 9 | -23 | 0 |
More FA WSL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for West Ham W vs Charlton Athletic W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the West Ham W v Charlton Athletic W probabilities?
West Ham W win 63%, draw 22%, Charlton Athletic W win 15%.
What is the most probable score for West Ham W vs Charlton Athletic W?
West Ham W 2–1 Charlton Athletic W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for West Ham W vs Charlton Athletic W?
West Ham W 2.11, Charlton Athletic W 1.00 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is West Ham W vs Charlton Athletic W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at London Stadium – FA WSL.