- λ home
- 0.79
- λ away
- 1.97
- Σλ total
- 2.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.5%
Imabari vs Jubilo Iwata prediction & xG model: Jubilo Iwata to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Imabari 13% · draw 22% · Jubilo Iwata 64%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Imabari v Jubilo Iwata: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Imabari v Jubilo Iwata are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.79, λaway = 1.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 65.0%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Imabari | – | 5.0% | 25.0% | 13.4% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% |
| 2 Jubilo Iwata | – | 75.0% | 49.4% | 64.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Imabari | 13.4% | 7.47 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -52.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -22.1% | |
| 2 · Jubilo Iwata pick | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.81 | 55.2% | +16.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.8% | 2.80 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -36.7% | |
| X2 | 86.6% | 1.15 | 1.19 | 84.0% | +3.1% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -6.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Imabari | 17.2% | 5.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Jubilo Iwata | 82.8% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3.88 | 25.8% | -8.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -15.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -8.3% | |
| BTTS no | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -8.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.2% | 7.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.4% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.642 × 1.81 − 1 = +0.163 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.201 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Imabari | Jubilo Iwata |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLLD | DWWDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Jubilo Iwata 64%, Imabari 13%. Standings: Imabari 19th on 12, Jubilo Iwata 9th on 23.
Form
Sequence for Imabari: L L D L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Albirex Niigata. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Jubilo Iwata have two wins from their last six (D W W D D D). Latest: 1–1 at home to Shonan Bellmare. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Imabari 0.79 · Jubilo Iwata 1.97 · total 2.76. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Jubilo Iwata to win, probability 64%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Imabari 0–1 Jubilo Iwata. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J2 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albirex Niigata | 16 | -1 | 32 |
| 2 |  Yokohama FC | 16 | +15 | 31 |
| 3 |  Kataller Toyama | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 4 |  Vegalta Sendai | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 5 |  Omiya Ardija | 16 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 7 |  Consadole Sapporo | 16 | +3 | 26 |
| 8 |  Iwaki | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 9 |  Jubilo Iwata | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 |  Shonan Bellmare | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  Oita Trinita | 16 | +5 | 22 |
| 12 |  Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Sagan Tosu | 16 | -3 | 20 |
| 14 |  Montedio Yamagata | 16 | -2 | 19 |
| 15 |  Tokushima Vortis | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 16 |  Fujieda MYFC | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | -15 | 14 |
| 18 |  Tochigi City | 16 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 |  Imabari | 16 | -16 | 12 |
| 20 |  Ventforet Kofu | 16 | -22 | 12 |
More J2 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Imabari vs Jubilo Iwata?
The Model pick is Jubilo Iwata to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Imabari v Jubilo Iwata probabilities?
Imabari win 13%, draw 22%, Jubilo Iwata win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Imabari vs Jubilo Iwata?
Imabari 0–1 Jubilo Iwata is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Imabari vs Jubilo Iwata?
Imabari 0.79, Jubilo Iwata 1.97 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Imabari vs Jubilo Iwata?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Arigato Service Dream – J2 League.