- λ home
- 1.52
- λ away
- 1.76
- Σλ total
- 3.27
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Stade Payerne vs Coffrane prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Stade Payerne 36% · draw 21% · Coffrane 43%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Stade Payerne v Coffrane: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Stade Payerne v Coffrane are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (15 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Payerne (home) | 1.91 | 0.92 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Coffrane (away) | 1.51 | 0.89 | 1.25 | 1.69 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 0.92 × 0.80 ≈ 1.40
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.42 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.42 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.27 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.52, λaway = 1.76
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Stade Payerne | 31.4% | 33.0% | 41.2% | 35.9% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 11.0% | 23.8% | 21.1% |
| 2 Coffrane | 44.0% | 56.0% | 34.9% | 43.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Stade Payerne | 35.9% | 2.79 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -22.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -21.0% | |
| 2 · Coffrane | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.55 | 39.2% | +9.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -21.3% | |
| X2 | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -2.6% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Stade Payerne | 45.5% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Coffrane | 54.5% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.8% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.2% | 6.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | 2.85 | 2.69 | 37.2% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -13.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -4.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -22.2% | |
| BTTS no | 42.3% | 2.36 | 2.79 | 35.8% | +18.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.1% | 3.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.6% | 2.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.3% | 2.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.650 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.117 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Stade Payerne | Coffrane |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDDWL | WWWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 43% against 36%. Standings: Stade Payerne 15th on 11, Coffrane 10th on 16.
Form
Stade Payerne, last six: L L D D W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Lausanne Sport II. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Coffrane have four wins from their last six (W W W W L D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Chênois. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Stade Payerne 1.52 · Coffrane 1.76 · total 3.27. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Stade Payerne 1–2 Coffrane. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
1. Liga Classic Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prishtina Bern | 14 | +27 | 33 |
| 2 |  Azzurri Bienne | 14 | +17 | 33 |
| 3 |  Portalban / Gletterens | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Monthey | 14 | +4 | 23 |
| 5 |  Servette II | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sion II | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 |  Lausanne Sport II | 14 | +8 | 21 |
| 8 |  Naters | 14 | -7 | 20 |
| 9 |  Chênois | 14 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Coffrane | 13 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Lancy | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 |  La Chaux-de-Fonds | 13 | -15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Echallens | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 14 |  Meyrin | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 |  Stade Payerne | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 |  Vevey Sports | 14 | -21 | 4 |
More 1. Liga Classic Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Stade Payerne vs Coffrane?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Stade Payerne v Coffrane probabilities?
Stade Payerne win 36%, draw 21%, Coffrane win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Stade Payerne vs Coffrane?
Stade Payerne 1–2 Coffrane is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Stade Payerne vs Coffrane?
Stade Payerne 1.52, Coffrane 1.76 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Stade Payerne vs Coffrane?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT – 1. Liga Classic Group 1.