- λ home
- 1.71
- λ away
- 1.52
- Σλ total
- 3.23
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.3%
Chênois vs Monthey prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Chênois v Monthey: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Chênois v Monthey are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (20 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chênois (home) | 1.66 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.68 |
| Monthey (away) | 1.38 | 0.92 | 1.09 | 1.37 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.01 × 1.00 ≈ 1.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.06 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.23 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.23 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.23 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.71, λaway = 1.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Chênois | 44.2% | 45.0% | 43.2% | 44.3% |
| X Draw | 24.8% | 16.0% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| 2 Monthey | 31.0% | 39.0% | 33.0% | 36.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Chênois | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -8.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.19 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -27.8% | |
| 2 · Monthey | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -1.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -15.5% | |
| X2 | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -11.9% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Chênois | 54.8% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Monthey | 45.2% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 5.98 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -9.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -10.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -8.1% | |
| BTTS no | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.53 | 39.5% | -10.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.5% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.9% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.6% | 3.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.647 × 1.42 − 1 = -0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Chênois | Monthey |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDLL | LWLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Chênois 44%, draw 19%, Monthey 36%. Standings: Chênois 8th on 17, Monthey 6th on 20.
Form
Chênois have two wins from their last six (L W W D L L). Latest: 1–2 away at Coffrane. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Monthey, last six: L W L L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 2–3 at home to Servette II. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Chênois 1.71 · Monthey 1.52 · total 3.23. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.42 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Chênois 2–1 Monthey. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
1. Liga Classic Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prishtina Bern | 13 | +27 | 32 |
| 2 |  Azzurri Bienne | 13 | +16 | 30 |
| 3 |  Portalban / Gletterens | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Servette II | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Lausanne Sport II | 13 | +8 | 20 |
| 6 |  Monthey | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 |  Sion II | 13 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 |  Chênois | 13 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 |  Naters | 13 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 |  Coffrane | 13 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Lancy | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 |  La Chaux-de-Fonds | 13 | -15 | 16 |
| 13 |  Echallens | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 14 |  Meyrin | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 |  Stade Payerne | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 |  Vevey Sports | 13 | -19 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Chênois vs Monthey?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.42 by the bookmakers.
What are the Chênois v Monthey probabilities?
Chênois win 44%, draw 19%, Monthey win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Chênois vs Monthey?
Chênois 2–1 Monthey is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Chênois vs Monthey?
Chênois 1.71, Monthey 1.52 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Chênois vs Monthey?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 17:00 WAT – 1. Liga Classic Group 1.