- λ home
- 1.34
- λ away
- 1.14
- Σλ total
- 2.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Al-Adalah 44% · draw 21% · Al Orubah 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Al-Adalah v Al Orubah: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Al-Adalah v Al Orubah are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.32 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.61 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.34, λaway = 1.14
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Al-Adalah | – | 45.0% | 42.3% | 43.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 Al Orubah | – | 38.0% | 30.2% | 34.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Al-Adalah | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.11 | 47.4% | -7.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Al Orubah | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.95 | 33.9% | +2.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -16.5% | |
| X2 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -13.0% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Al-Adalah | 55.8% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Al Orubah | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -8.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -11.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -5.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -16.7% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -6.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.71 | 58.5% | +0.0% | |
| BTTS no | 41.5% | 2.41 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -19.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.6% | 3.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.1% | 3.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.740 × 1.26 − 1 = -0.068 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Al-Adalah | Al Orubah |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWDLW | LLDDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Al-Adalah 44%, draw 21%, Al Orubah 35%. Standings: Al-Adalah 10th on 13, Al Orubah 13th on 8.
Form
Sequence for Al-Adalah: D L W D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Jeddah Club. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Al Orubah, last six: L L D D W D – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Al Anwar. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Al-Adalah 1.34 · Al Orubah 1.14 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 74%, odds 1.26 v fair 1.35. Most probable score: Al-Adalah 1–0 Al Orubah. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Division 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Ula | 10 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Al Jabalain | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Al Wehda Club | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Al Najma | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  Damac | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 6 |  Al Zulfi | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 7 |  Al Anwar | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Al Saqer | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Al Taee | 11 | -9 | 14 |
| 10 |  Al-Adalah | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Al-Raed | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 |  Jeddah Club | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Al Orubah | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Al Jandal | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 |  Al Okhdood | 10 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Hajer | 10 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |  Al Bukayriyah | 11 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 |  Al Jeel | 9 | -10 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 74, priced around 1.26 by the bookmakers.
What are the Al-Adalah v Al Orubah probabilities?
Al-Adalah win 44%, draw 21%, Al Orubah win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah?
Al-Adalah 1–0 Al Orubah is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah?
Al-Adalah 1.34, Al Orubah 1.14 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Al-Adalah vs Al Orubah?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 15:30 WAT, at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium – Division 1.