- λ home
- 1.38
- λ away
- 1.16
- Σλ total
- 2.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.6%
Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Metalul Buzău v CSA Steaua Bucureşti: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Metalul Buzău v CSA Steaua Bucureşti are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metalul Buzău (home) | 1.61 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 1.60 |
| CSA Steaua Bucureşti (away) | 1.24 | 0.91 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 0.94 × 1.05 ≈ 1.60
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.75 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.38, λaway = 1.16
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Metalul Buzău | 55.7% | 44.0% | 45.1% | 44.5% |
| X Draw | 26.3% | 17.0% | 27.2% | 21.3% |
| 2 CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 17.9% | 39.0% | 27.6% | 34.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.080 → 8.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Metalul Buzău | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.70 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -27.6% | |
| 2 · CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 34.2% | 2.92 | 3.35 | 29.9% | +14.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -13.2% | |
| X2 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -2.8% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Metalul Buzău | 56.5% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| DNB CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -5.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -11.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -1.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 3.49 | 2.87 | 34.8% | -17.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -2.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -1.9% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -14.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.3% | 3.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.1% | 3.99 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.595 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.019 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Metalul Buzău | CSA Steaua Bucureşti |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWWW | DWDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Metalul Buzău 44%, draw 21%, CSA Steaua Bucureşti 34%. Standings: Metalul Buzău 7th on 24, CSA Steaua Bucureşti 16th on 11.
Form
Metalul Buzău, last six: L W D W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Popești-Leordeni. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
CSA Steaua Bucureşti have two wins from their last six (D W D D W L). Latest: 0–0 at home to CS Dinamo București. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Metalul Buzău 1.38 · CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1.16 · total 2.54. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Metalul Buzău 2–1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga II table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chindia Targoviste | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 2 |  FC Politehnica Timisoara | 13 | +13 | 29 |
| 3 |  Slatina | 13 | +9 | 28 |
| 4 |  Popești-Leordeni | 13 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 |  Concordia | 13 | +14 | 25 |
| 6 |  CSM Reşiţa | 13 | +4 | 25 |
| 7 |  Metalul Buzău | 13 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Cetatea Suceava | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 9 |  Metaloglobus | 13 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 13 | -1 | 20 |
| 11 |  FC Bacau | 13 | +9 | 19 |
| 12 |  Bihor Oradea | 13 | +7 | 19 |
| 13 |  CS Afumati | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Gloria Bistriţa | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Unirea Slobozia | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 |  CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 13 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  ASA Targu Mures | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 18 |  CSM Satu Mare | 13 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 |  Viitorul Şelimbăr | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 20 |  Ştefăneşti | 13 | -20 | 9 |
| 21 |  CS Dinamo București | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 22 |  Dumbrăviţa | 13 | -17 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Metalul Buzău v CSA Steaua Bucureşti probabilities?
Metalul Buzău win 44%, draw 21%, CSA Steaua Bucureşti win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti?
Metalul Buzău 2–1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti?
Metalul Buzău 1.38, CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1.16 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Metalul Buzău vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti?
Tuesday 10 November 2026, 18:30 WAT, at Stadionul Cornel Negoescu - artificial grass – Liga II.