- λ home
- 1.49
- λ away
- 0.63
- Σλ total
- 2.12
- P(over 2.5)
- 38%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.9%
Aduana Stars vs Bechem United prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Aduana Stars 60% · draw 25% · Bechem United 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Aduana Stars v Bechem United: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Aduana Stars v Bechem United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aduana Stars (home) | 1.39 | 0.87 | 1.18 | 1.43 |
| Bechem United (away) | 0.73 | 1.31 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.39 × 0.87 × 1.18 ≈ 1.43
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.29 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.12 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.49, λaway = 0.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aduana Stars | 54.9% | 70.0% | 58.6% | 59.9% |
| X Draw | 28.7% | 19.0% | 26.1% | 25.3% |
| 2 Bechem United | 16.4% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aduana Stars | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -7.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.46 | 28.9% | -12.3% | |
| 2 · Bechem United | 14.7% | 6.79 | 5.86 | 17.1% | -13.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -9.6% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | 2.50 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -13.5% | |
| 12 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -9.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aduana Stars | 80.3% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bechem United | 19.7% | 5.07 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -11.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -6.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -13.7% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.8% | 5.32 | 4.30 | 23.3% | -19.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.2% | 2.08 | 2.27 | 44.1% | +9.4% | |
| BTTS no | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -20.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.8% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.7% | 7.33 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.622 × 1.53 − 1 = -0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aduana Stars | Bechem United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWLW | WLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Aduana Stars ahead at 60%, against 15% for Bechem United and 25% for the draw. Standings: Aduana Stars 5th on 17, Bechem United 6th on 16.
Form
Aduana Stars, last six: D W L W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Bibiani Gold Stars. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Bechem United have three wins from their last six (W L W L W L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Samartex. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aduana Stars 1.49 · Bechem United 0.63 · total 2.12. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 62%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Aduana Stars 1–0 Bechem United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Medeama | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Hearts of Oak | 10 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 |  Port City | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 |  Samartex | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 |  Aduana Stars | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Bechem United | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Ashanti Gold | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Swedru All Blacks | 10 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |  Berekum Chelsea | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Asante Kotoko | 10 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Basake Holy Stars | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Bibiani Gold Stars | 10 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  Karela | 10 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Debibi United | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |  Heart of Lions | 10 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 |  Vision | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 |  Young Apostles | 10 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 |  Dreams | 10 | -6 | 7 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aduana Stars vs Bechem United?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aduana Stars v Bechem United probabilities?
Aduana Stars win 60%, draw 25%, Bechem United win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Aduana Stars vs Bechem United?
Aduana Stars 1–0 Bechem United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aduana Stars vs Bechem United?
Aduana Stars 1.49, Bechem United 0.63 – over 2.5 at 38%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Aduana Stars vs Bechem United?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Agyeman Badu Stadium – Premier League.