- λ home
- 1.38
- λ away
- 1.37
- Σλ total
- 2.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.1%
Concón National vs Santiago City prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Concón National 40% · draw 20% · Santiago City 40%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Concón National v Santiago City: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Concón National v Santiago City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.56 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.92 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.38, λaway = 1.37
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Concón National | – | 42.0% | 38.4% | 40.5% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 24.5% | 19.6% |
| 2 Santiago City | – | 42.0% | 37.1% | 40.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Concón National | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.32 | 43.1% | -6.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.6% | 5.11 | 3.64 | 27.5% | -28.8% | |
| 2 · Santiago City | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -4.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -14.7% | |
| X2 | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -13.7% | |
| 12 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Concón National | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Santiago City | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -7.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -11.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -4.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -15.7% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -18.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.3% | 3.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.678 × 1.38 − 1 = -0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Concón National | Santiago City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLWL | LDLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Concón National 40%, draw 20%, Santiago City 40%. Standings: Concón National 4th on 21, Santiago City 5th on 20.
Form
Concón National, last six: D D L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Linares Unido. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Santiago City have two wins from their last six (L D L D W W). Latest: 0–1 at home to Linares Unido. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Concón National 1, Santiago City 1, drawn 0, 4.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Santiago City 3–0 Concón National. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Concón National 1.38 · Santiago City 1.37 · total 2.76. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.38 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Concón National 1–0 Santiago City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Sep 2026Santiago City3–0Concón National
- 11 Jul 2026Concón National4–2Santiago City
Segunda División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Concón National vs Santiago City?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.38 by the bookmakers.
What are the Concón National v Santiago City probabilities?
Concón National win 40%, draw 20%, Santiago City win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Concón National vs Santiago City?
Concón National 1–0 Santiago City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Concón National vs Santiago City?
Concón National 1.38, Santiago City 1.37 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Concón National vs Santiago City?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT – Segunda División.