- λ home
- 1.43
- λ away
- 1.38
- Σλ total
- 2.81
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Santiago Morning vs Deportes Rengo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Santiago Morning 49% · draw 24% · Deportes Rengo 27%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Santiago Morning v Deportes Rengo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Santiago Morning v Deportes Rengo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Morning (home) | 1.36 | 0.76 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
| Deportes Rengo (away) | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.09 | 1.73 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.36 × 0.76 × 1.25 ≈ 1.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.56 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.68 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.81 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.43, λaway = 1.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Santiago Morning | 28.5% | 74.0% | 52.4% | 49.1% |
| X Draw | 24.6% | 21.0% | 25.6% | 24.2% |
| 2 Deportes Rengo | 46.9% | 5.0% | 22.0% | 26.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Santiago Morning | 49.1% | 2.04 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -16.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -15.8% | |
| 2 · Deportes Rengo | 26.7% | 3.74 | 4.05 | 24.7% | +8.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -16.5% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | 1.96 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -4.3% | |
| 12 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -9.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Santiago Morning | 64.7% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Deportes Rengo | 35.3% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -7.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -15.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -5.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.84 | 54.3% | -11.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -7.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.74 | 57.5% | +4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 39.9% | 2.51 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -23.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.1% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.7% | 3.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.601 × 1.74 − 1 = +0.045 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.061 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Santiago Morning | Deportes Rengo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLDD | DLLWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Santiago Morning ahead at 49%, against 27% for Deportes Rengo and 24% for the draw. Standings: Santiago Morning 13th on 10, Deportes Rengo 12th on 11.
Form
Santiago Morning have zero wins from their last six (L L D L D D). Latest: 1–2 away at Provincial Ovalle. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for Deportes Rengo: D L L W W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–3 at home to Real San Joaquín. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Santiago Morning 0, Deportes Rengo 1, drawn 1, 4.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Deportes Rengo 2–2 Santiago Morning. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Santiago Morning 1.43 · Deportes Rengo 1.38 · total 2.81. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.74 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Santiago Morning 2–1 Deportes Rengo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Sep 2026Deportes Rengo2–2Santiago Morning
- 4 Jul 2026Deportes Rengo3–1Santiago Morning
Segunda División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Santiago Morning vs Deportes Rengo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.74 by the bookmakers.
What are the Santiago Morning v Deportes Rengo probabilities?
Santiago Morning win 49%, draw 24%, Deportes Rengo win 27%.
What is the most probable score for Santiago Morning vs Deportes Rengo?
Santiago Morning 2–1 Deportes Rengo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Santiago Morning vs Deportes Rengo?
Santiago Morning 1.43, Deportes Rengo 1.38 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Santiago Morning vs Deportes Rengo?
Monday 16 November 2026, 21:30 WAT, at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana – Segunda División.