- λ home
- 1.70
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.59
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.7%
FAS vs Inter prediction & xG model: FAS to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FAS v Inter: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFAS to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FAS v Inter are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (38 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAS (home) | 1.48 | 1.23 | 0.82 | 1.49 |
| Inter (away) | 1.23 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.48 × 1.23 × 0.82 ≈ 1.49
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.70 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.59 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.70, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FAS | 49.5% | 61.0% | 49.3% | 56.1% |
| X Draw | 27.6% | 23.0% | 27.1% | 24.7% |
| 2 Inter | 22.9% | 16.0% | 23.6% | 19.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FAS pick | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +2.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -17.9% | |
| 2 · Inter | 19.2% | 5.21 | 3.82 | 26.2% | -26.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.5% | |
| X2 | 43.9% | 2.28 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -22.7% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FAS | 74.5% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Inter | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -9.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.0% | 3.71 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -9.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -10.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -5.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.6% | 3.50 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -16.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -6.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -2.4% | |
| BTTS no | 42.6% | 2.35 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -15.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.4% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.6% | 5.69 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.561 × 1.83 − 1 = +0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.031 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FAS | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLDLW | LDWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FAS ahead at 56%, against 19% for Inter and 25% for the draw. Standings: FAS 3rd on 34, Inter 5th on 31.
Form
FAS, last six: D D L D L W – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Fuerte San Francisco. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Inter: L D W L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Firpo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: FAS 1, Inter 0, drawn 2, 4.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Inter 2–2 FAS. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FAS 1.70 · Inter 0.89 · total 2.59. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FAS to win, probability 56%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: FAS 1–0 Inter. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Sep 2026Inter2–2FAS
- 16 Apr 2026Inter2–2FAS
- 19 Feb 2026FAS3–1Inter
Primera Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 20 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapán | 20 | +6 | 35 |
| 3 |  FAS | 20 | +10 | 34 |
| 4 |  Águila | 20 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 |  Inter | 21 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 |  Platense | 20 | +2 | 27 |
| 7 |  Alianza | 20 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 |  Municipal Limeño | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 9 |  Atletico Balboa | 20 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Cacahuatique | 21 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 21 | -15 | 17 |
| 12 |  Inca Aruba | 20 | -22 | 17 |
More Primera Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FAS vs Inter?
The Model pick is FAS to win with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the FAS v Inter probabilities?
FAS win 56%, draw 25%, Inter win 19%.
What is the most probable score for FAS vs Inter?
FAS 1–0 Inter is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FAS vs Inter?
FAS 1.70, Inter 0.89 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is FAS vs Inter?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 02:00 WAT – Primera Division.