- λ home
- 1.94
- λ away
- 0.71
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.7%
Isidro Metapán vs Platense prediction & xG model: Isidro Metapán to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Isidro Metapán v Platense: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipIsidro Metapán to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Isidro Metapán v Platense are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (35 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isidro Metapán (home) | 1.48 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.32 |
| Platense (away) | 1.23 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.48 × 0.90 × 1.00 ≈ 1.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.28 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.47 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.80 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.94, λaway = 0.71
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Isidro Metapán | 44.1% | 75.0% | 52.1% | 65.4% |
| X Draw | 29.4% | 20.0% | 27.0% | 22.9% |
| 2 Platense | 26.5% | 5.0% | 20.9% | 11.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Isidro Metapán pick | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +13.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.9% | 4.36 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -23.4% | |
| 2 · Platense | 11.7% | 8.57 | 4.32 | 23.1% | -49.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.3% | 1.13 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -0.2% | |
| X2 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -35.3% | |
| 12 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Isidro Metapán | 84.9% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Platense | 15.1% | 6.60 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -7.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -11.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -4.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -17.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -5.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -10.5% | |
| BTTS no | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -5.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.9% | 7.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.654 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.131 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.180 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Isidro Metapán | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLDWL | LDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Isidro Metapán 65% to win. Standings: Isidro Metapán 2nd on 35, Platense 6th on 27.
Form
Sequence for Isidro Metapán: D D L D W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Inca Aruba. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Platense have three wins from their last six (L D D W W W). Latest: 0–2 at home to Cacahuatique. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Isidro Metapán 1, Platense 1, drawn 1, 2.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Platense 1–2 Isidro Metapán. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Isidro Metapán 1.94 · Platense 0.71 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Isidro Metapán to win, probability 65%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Isidro Metapán 1–0 Platense. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 Sep 2026Platense1–2Isidro Metapán
- 19 Apr 2026Isidro Metapán0–2Platense
- 22 Feb 2026Platense1–1Isidro Metapán
Primera Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 20 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapán | 20 | +6 | 35 |
| 3 |  FAS | 20 | +10 | 34 |
| 4 |  Águila | 20 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 |  Inter | 21 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 |  Platense | 20 | +2 | 27 |
| 7 |  Alianza | 20 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 |  Municipal Limeño | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 9 |  Atletico Balboa | 20 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Cacahuatique | 21 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 21 | -15 | 17 |
| 12 |  Inca Aruba | 20 | -22 | 17 |
More Primera Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Isidro Metapán vs Platense?
The Model pick is Isidro Metapán to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Isidro Metapán v Platense probabilities?
Isidro Metapán win 65%, draw 23%, Platense win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Isidro Metapán vs Platense?
Isidro Metapán 1–0 Platense is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Isidro Metapán vs Platense?
Isidro Metapán 1.94, Platense 0.71 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Isidro Metapán vs Platense?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 02:00 WAT – Primera Division.