- λ home
- 1.91
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.74
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.4%
Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa prediction & xG model: Municipal Limeño to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Municipal Limeño v Atletico Balboa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipMunicipal Limeño to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Municipal Limeño v Atletico Balboa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (38 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Limeño (home) | 1.48 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 1.83 |
| Atletico Balboa (away) | 1.23 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.48 × 1.13 × 1.09 ≈ 1.83
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.27 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.78 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.70 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.74 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.91, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Municipal Limeño | 46.0% | 68.0% | 52.1% | 61.3% |
| X Draw | 23.7% | 24.0% | 25.3% | 24.5% |
| 2 Atletico Balboa | 30.3% | 8.0% | 22.6% | 14.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Municipal Limeño pick | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.71 | 58.5% | +4.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.5% | 4.07 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -13.6% | |
| 2 · Atletico Balboa | 14.1% | 7.07 | 3.94 | 25.4% | -44.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.9% | 1.16 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -1.3% | |
| X2 | 38.7% | 2.59 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -27.7% | |
| 12 | 75.5% | 1.33 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -10.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Municipal Limeño | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atletico Balboa | 18.7% | 5.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -8.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -12.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | 2.05 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -9.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.5% | 3.39 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -10.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -9.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 42.5% | 2.35 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.2% | 6.59 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.613 × 1.71 − 1 = +0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.068 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Municipal Limeño | Atletico Balboa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDWLL | WWDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Municipal Limeño at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Municipal Limeño 8th on 24, Atletico Balboa 9th on 23.
Form
Sequence for Municipal Limeño: D D D W L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Fuerte San Francisco. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Atletico Balboa have two wins from their last six (W W D L L L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Alianza. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Atletico Balboa 0–2 Municipal Limeño. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Municipal Limeño 1.91 · Atletico Balboa 0.83 · total 2.74. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Municipal Limeño to win, probability 61%, odds 1.71 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Municipal Limeño 1–0 Atletico Balboa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Sep 2026Atletico Balboa0–2Municipal Limeño
Primera Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 20 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapán | 20 | +6 | 35 |
| 3 |  FAS | 20 | +10 | 34 |
| 4 |  Águila | 20 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 |  Inter | 21 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 |  Platense | 20 | +2 | 27 |
| 7 |  Alianza | 20 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 |  Municipal Limeño | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 9 |  Atletico Balboa | 20 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Cacahuatique | 21 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 21 | -15 | 17 |
| 12 |  Inca Aruba | 20 | -22 | 17 |
More Primera Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa?
The Model pick is Municipal Limeño to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.71 by the bookmakers.
What are the Municipal Limeño v Atletico Balboa probabilities?
Municipal Limeño win 61%, draw 25%, Atletico Balboa win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa?
Municipal Limeño 1–0 Atletico Balboa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa?
Municipal Limeño 1.91, Atletico Balboa 0.83 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Municipal Limeño vs Atletico Balboa?
Monday 9 November 2026, 00:00 WAT – Primera Division.