- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 1.65
- Σλ total
- 3.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.3%
Arkonia U19 vs Lech Poznań U19 prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Arkonia U19 39% · draw 20% · Lech Poznań U19 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Arkonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Arkonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.20 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 1.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Arkonia U19 | – | 40.0% | 36.7% | 38.6% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 24.8% | 19.7% |
| 2 Lech Poznań U19 | – | 44.0% | 38.6% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Arkonia U19 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -6.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Lech Poznań U19 | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.31 | 43.3% | -3.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -14.9% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -13.4% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.24 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -4.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Arkonia U19 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lech Poznań U19 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.2% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.8% | 5.94 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -9.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -10.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.44 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -9.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -6.7% | |
| BTTS no | 34.3% | 2.91 | 2.53 | 39.5% | -13.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.0% | 3.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.0% | 3.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.657 × 1.42 − 1 = -0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Arkonia U19 | Lech Poznań U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWWD | WLWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 20 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: Arkonia U19 8th on 21, Lech Poznań U19 9th on 19.
Form
Sequence for Arkonia U19: D W D W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Korona Kielce U19. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Lech Poznań U19: W L W W L D, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Stal Rzeszów U19. 2.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Arkonia U19 1.57 · Lech Poznań U19 1.65 · total 3.22. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 66%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 66%, odds 1.42 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Arkonia U19 1–2 Lech Poznań U19. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Central Youth League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Legia Warszawa U19 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 2 |  Miedź Legnica U19 | 14 | +11 | 26 |
| 3 |  Górnik Zabrze U19 | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Jagiellonia U19 | 14 | +4 | 21 |
| 5 |  Wisła Kraków U19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 6 |  Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 14 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 |  Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 14 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 |  Arkonia U19 | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 |  Lech Poznań U19 | 14 | +1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Polonia Warszawa U19 | 14 | +4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Raków Częstochowa U19 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 |  Talent Warszawa U19 | 14 | -9 | 16 |
| 13 |  Stal Rzeszów U19 | 14 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 |  Escola Varsovia U19 | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce U19 | 14 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 |  Arka Gdynia U19 | 14 | -16 | 12 |
More Central Youth League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Arkonia U19 vs Lech Poznań U19?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.42 by the bookmakers.
What are the Arkonia U19 v Lech Poznań U19 probabilities?
Arkonia U19 win 39%, draw 20%, Lech Poznań U19 win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Arkonia U19 vs Lech Poznań U19?
Arkonia U19 1–2 Lech Poznań U19 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Arkonia U19 vs Lech Poznań U19?
Arkonia U19 1.57, Lech Poznań U19 1.65 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Arkonia U19 vs Lech Poznań U19?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:15 WAT – Central Youth League.