- λ home
- 1.08
- λ away
- 1.90
- Σλ total
- 2.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Farense U23 vs Sporting CP U23 prediction & xG model: Sporting CP U23 to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Farense U23 v Sporting CP U23: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipSporting CP U23 to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Farense U23 v Sporting CP U23 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense U23 (home) | 1.58 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| Sporting CP U23 (away) | 1.42 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 1.51 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 0.86 × 0.92 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.77 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.09 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.91 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.08, λaway = 1.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Farense U23 | 31.1% | 19.0% | 26.7% | 22.2% |
| X Draw | 26.4% | 16.0% | 26.4% | 20.4% |
| 2 Sporting CP U23 | 42.5% | 65.0% | 46.9% | 57.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Farense U23 | 22.2% | 4.50 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -25.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.4% | 4.91 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -31.2% | |
| 2 · Sporting CP U23 pick | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +9.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.6% | 2.35 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -28.0% | |
| X2 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.1% | |
| 12 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Farense U23 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sporting CP U23 | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 4.63 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -15.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -9.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -4.5% | |
| BTTS no | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -15.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.6% | 5.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.7% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.6% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.574 × 1.90 − 1 = +0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.101 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Farense U23 | Sporting CP U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLLD | DWWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 57% against 22%. Standings: Farense U23 14th on 12, Sporting CP U23 1st on 22.
Form
Farense U23 have zero wins from their last six (L L D L L D). Latest: 0–2 away at Benfica U23. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Sporting CP U23 have two wins from their last six (D W W L D D). Latest: 2–2 at home to Sporting Braga U23. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Farense U23 1.08 · Sporting CP U23 1.90 · total 2.99. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Sporting CP U23 to win, probability 57%, odds 1.90 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Farense U23 1–2 Sporting CP U23. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga Revelação U23 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP U23 | 11 | +8 | 22 |
| 2 |  Academico Viseu U23 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 3 |  Estoril U23 | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 4 |  Rio Ave U23 | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Torreense U23 | 11 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 |  Famalicão U23 | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Vizela U23 | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 |  Moreirense U23 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 9 |  Felgueiras U23 | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sporting Braga U23 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Benfica U23 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  União Leiria U23 | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Penafiel U23 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 |  Farense U23 | 11 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gil Vicente U23 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 |  Leixões U23 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 |  Portimonense U23 | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 |  Santa Clara U23 | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 |  Estrela U23 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 |  Marítimo U23 | 11 | -6 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Farense U23 vs Sporting CP U23?
The Model pick is Sporting CP U23 to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.90 by the bookmakers.
What are the Farense U23 v Sporting CP U23 probabilities?
Farense U23 win 22%, draw 20%, Sporting CP U23 win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Farense U23 vs Sporting CP U23?
Farense U23 1–2 Sporting CP U23 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Farense U23 vs Sporting CP U23?
Farense U23 1.08, Sporting CP U23 1.90 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Farense U23 vs Sporting CP U23?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Liga Revelação U23.