- λ home
- 2.11
- λ away
- 1.43
- Σλ total
- 3.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.2%
Felgueiras U23 vs Leixões U23 prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Felgueiras U23 56% · draw 21% · Leixões U23 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Felgueiras U23 v Leixões U23: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Felgueiras U23 v Leixões U23 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felgueiras U23 (home) | 1.58 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 2.19 |
| Leixões U23 (away) | 1.42 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.59 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 1.20 × 1.16 ≈ 2.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.78 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.55 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.16 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.11, λaway = 1.43
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 53.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 25.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Felgueiras U23 | 51.0% | 69.0% | 52.4% | 55.8% |
| X Draw | 21.2% | 14.0% | 23.6% | 20.5% |
| 2 Leixões U23 | 27.8% | 17.0% | 24.0% | 23.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Felgueiras U23 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.87 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -22.4% | |
| 2 · Leixões U23 | 23.7% | 4.22 | 3.72 | 26.9% | -11.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -10.7% | |
| X2 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -16.9% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Felgueiras U23 | 70.2% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Leixões U23 | 29.8% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.1% | 6.23 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -22.9% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -4.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -18.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -0.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -13.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.7% | 1.54 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 35.3% | 2.84 | 2.36 | 42.4% | -16.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.7% | 4.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.649 × 1.48 − 1 = -0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Felgueiras U23 | Leixões U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWDW | LDWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Felgueiras U23 56%, draw 21%, Leixões U23 24%. Standings: Felgueiras U23 9th on 15, Leixões U23 16th on 10.
Form
Sequence for Felgueiras U23: L W D W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–4 away at Gil Vicente U23. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Leixões U23 have one win from their last six (L D W D L D). Latest: 1–4 at home to Rio Ave U23. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Felgueiras U23 2.11 · Leixões U23 1.43 · total 3.54. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.48 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Felgueiras U23 2–1 Leixões U23. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga Revelação U23 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP U23 | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 |  Academico Viseu U23 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 3 |  Estoril U23 | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 4 |  Rio Ave U23 | 11 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Torreense U23 | 11 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 |  Famalicão U23 | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 7 |  Vizela U23 | 10 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 |  Moreirense U23 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 9 |  Felgueiras U23 | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Sporting Braga U23 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Benfica U23 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  União Leiria U23 | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Farense U23 | 12 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Penafiel U23 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gil Vicente U23 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 |  Leixões U23 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 |  Portimonense U23 | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 |  Santa Clara U23 | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 |  Estrela U23 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 |  Marítimo U23 | 11 | -6 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Felgueiras U23 vs Leixões U23?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.48 by the bookmakers.
What are the Felgueiras U23 v Leixões U23 probabilities?
Felgueiras U23 win 56%, draw 21%, Leixões U23 win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Felgueiras U23 vs Leixões U23?
Felgueiras U23 2–1 Leixões U23 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Felgueiras U23 vs Leixões U23?
Felgueiras U23 2.11, Leixões U23 1.43 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Felgueiras U23 vs Leixões U23?
Monday 16 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Liga Revelação U23.