- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 1.47
- Σλ total
- 3.04
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Havant & Wville vs Yate Town prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Havant & Wville v Yate Town: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Havant & Wville v Yate Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havant & Wville (home) | 1.85 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 2.01 |
| Yate Town (away) | 1.39 | 0.82 | 1.09 | 1.24 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.85 × 0.98 × 1.10 ≈ 2.01
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.25 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.16 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.04 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 1.47
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Havant & Wville | 54.6% | 43.0% | 39.8% | 41.7% |
| X Draw | 22.5% | 17.0% | 25.9% | 20.7% |
| 2 Yate Town | 23.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | 37.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Havant & Wville | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -6.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -28.6% | |
| 2 · Yate Town | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -2.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -15.1% | |
| X2 | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -13.1% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Havant & Wville | 52.6% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Yate Town | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -7.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.88 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -14.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -6.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.5% | 2.81 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -7.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -10.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.3% | 1.56 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -2.3% | |
| BTTS no | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -18.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.6% | 3.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.643 × 1.52 − 1 = -0.023 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Havant & Wville | Yate Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLDW | WDLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Havant & Wville 42%, draw 21%, Yate Town 38%. Standings: Havant & Wville 20th on 15, Yate Town 17th on 18.
Form
Havant & Wville have two wins from their last six (L W L L D W). Latest: 0–1 away at Malvern Town. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sequence for Yate Town: W D L D D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 3–0 away at Evesham United. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Havant & Wville 1.57 · Yate Town 1.47 · total 3.04. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.52 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Havant & Wville 2–1 Yate Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Non League Premier Southern South table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 16 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Hanworth Villa | 17 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Poole Town | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 4 |  Plymouth Parkway | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Chertsey Town | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bath City | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Taunton Town | 15 | +14 | 25 |
| 9 |  Gosport Borough | 17 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  Wimborne Town | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 11 |  Frome Town | 16 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Hanwell Town | 17 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Basingstoke Town | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Evesham United | 18 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 |  Sholing | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Berkhamsted | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 17 |  Yate Town | 17 | -12 | 18 |
| 18 |  Gloucester City | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 |  Chippenham Town | 17 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Havant & Wville | 17 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Bracknell Town | 17 | -18 | 15 |
| 22 |  Malvern Town | 16 | -17 | 14 |
More Non League Premier Southern South predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Havant & Wville vs Yate Town?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.52 by the bookmakers.
What are the Havant & Wville v Yate Town probabilities?
Havant & Wville win 42%, draw 21%, Yate Town win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Havant & Wville vs Yate Town?
Havant & Wville 2–1 Yate Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Havant & Wville vs Yate Town?
Havant & Wville 1.57, Yate Town 1.47 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Havant & Wville vs Yate Town?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Non League Premier Southern South.