- λ home
- 1.59
- λ away
- 1.51
- Σλ total
- 3.10
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.8%
Frome Town vs Plymouth Parkway prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Frome Town v Plymouth Parkway: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Frome Town v Plymouth Parkway are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frome Town (home) | 1.85 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.70 |
| Plymouth Parkway (away) | 1.39 | 1.24 | 0.99 | 1.72 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.85 × 1.00 × 0.91 ≈ 1.70
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.05 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.10 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.59, λaway = 1.51
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Frome Town | 37.8% | 44.0% | 38.1% | 41.5% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 17.0% | 25.6% | 20.6% |
| 2 Plymouth Parkway | 38.8% | 39.0% | 36.4% | 37.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Frome Town | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.34 | 42.7% | -2.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -28.3% | |
| 2 · Plymouth Parkway | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -7.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -12.4% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -15.8% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Frome Town | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Plymouth Parkway | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.2% | 5.19 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -13.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -7.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.22 | 45.0% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.41 | 41.5% | -9.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -9.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -5.4% | |
| BTTS no | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.39 | 41.8% | -14.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.7% | 3.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.643 × 1.47 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Frome Town | Plymouth Parkway |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLWD | DWLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 42 / 21 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: Frome Town 11th on 20, Plymouth Parkway 4th on 29.
Form
Sequence for Frome Town: D L D L W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Bracknell Town. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Plymouth Parkway, last six: D W L W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Berkhamsted. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Frome Town 0, Plymouth Parkway 2, drawn 0, 2.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Plymouth Parkway 2–0 Frome Town. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Frome Town 1.59 · Plymouth Parkway 1.51 · total 3.10. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.47 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Frome Town 2–1 Plymouth Parkway. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Sep 2026Plymouth Parkway2–0Frome Town
- 19 Sep 2026Frome Town0–2Plymouth Parkway
Non League Premier Southern South table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 16 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Hanworth Villa | 17 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Poole Town | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 4 |  Plymouth Parkway | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Chertsey Town | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bath City | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Taunton Town | 15 | +14 | 25 |
| 9 |  Gosport Borough | 17 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  Wimborne Town | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 11 |  Frome Town | 16 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Hanwell Town | 17 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Basingstoke Town | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Evesham United | 18 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 |  Sholing | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Berkhamsted | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 17 |  Yate Town | 17 | -12 | 18 |
| 18 |  Gloucester City | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 |  Chippenham Town | 17 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Havant & Wville | 17 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Bracknell Town | 17 | -18 | 15 |
| 22 |  Malvern Town | 16 | -17 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Frome Town vs Plymouth Parkway?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.47 by the bookmakers.
What are the Frome Town v Plymouth Parkway probabilities?
Frome Town win 42%, draw 21%, Plymouth Parkway win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Frome Town vs Plymouth Parkway?
Frome Town 2–1 Plymouth Parkway is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Frome Town vs Plymouth Parkway?
Frome Town 1.59, Plymouth Parkway 1.51 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Frome Town vs Plymouth Parkway?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 20:45 WAT – Non League Premier Southern South.