- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 1.35
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Frome Town vs Gloucester City prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Frome Town 43% · draw 23% · Gloucester City 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Frome Town v Gloucester City: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Frome Town v Gloucester City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frome Town (home) | 1.85 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.77 |
| Gloucester City (away) | 1.39 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.29 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.85 × 1.00 × 0.95 ≈ 1.77
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.05 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.02 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 1.35
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Frome Town | 48.0% | 41.0% | 39.1% | 42.6% |
| X Draw | 24.4% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 22.7% |
| 2 Gloucester City | 27.6% | 43.0% | 36.0% | 34.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Frome Town | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -2.0% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -18.3% | |
| 2 · Gloucester City | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -13.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.9% | |
| X2 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -13.9% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Frome Town | 55.1% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Gloucester City | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.5% | 5.13 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -6.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.9% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.8% | 2.88 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.9% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.582 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Frome Town | Gloucester City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDLW | DWDDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Frome Town 43%, draw 23%, Gloucester City 35%. Standings: Frome Town 11th on 20, Gloucester City 18th on 16.
Form
Frome Town have one win from their last six (L D L D L W). Latest: 2–3 at home to Hanworth Villa. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Gloucester City, last six: D W D D L D – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Sholing. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Frome Town 1.68 · Gloucester City 1.35 · total 3.03. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Frome Town 2–1 Gloucester City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Non League Premier Southern South table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 16 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Hanworth Villa | 17 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Poole Town | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 4 |  Plymouth Parkway | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Chertsey Town | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bath City | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Taunton Town | 15 | +14 | 25 |
| 9 |  Gosport Borough | 17 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  Wimborne Town | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 11 |  Frome Town | 16 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Hanwell Town | 17 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Basingstoke Town | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Evesham United | 18 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 |  Sholing | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Berkhamsted | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 17 |  Yate Town | 17 | -12 | 18 |
| 18 |  Gloucester City | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 |  Chippenham Town | 17 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Havant & Wville | 17 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Bracknell Town | 17 | -18 | 15 |
| 22 |  Malvern Town | 16 | -17 | 14 |
More Non League Premier Southern South predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Frome Town vs Gloucester City?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Frome Town v Gloucester City probabilities?
Frome Town win 43%, draw 23%, Gloucester City win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Frome Town vs Gloucester City?
Frome Town 2–1 Gloucester City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Frome Town vs Gloucester City?
Frome Town 1.68, Gloucester City 1.35 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Frome Town vs Gloucester City?
Wednesday 18 November 2026, 20:45 WAT – Non League Premier Southern South.