- λ home
- 1.28
- λ away
- 1.04
- Σλ total
- 2.32
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.1%
Poole Town vs Wimborne Town prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Poole Town 48% · draw 25% · Wimborne Town 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Poole Town v Wimborne Town: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Poole Town v Wimborne Town are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poole Town (home) | 1.85 | 1.02 | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| Wimborne Town (away) | 1.39 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 1.26 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.85 × 1.02 × 0.67 ≈ 1.27
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.54 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.93 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.32 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.28, λaway = 1.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Poole Town | 36.2% | 72.0% | 45.4% | 48.4% |
| X Draw | 28.1% | 16.0% | 28.6% | 25.5% |
| 2 Wimborne Town | 35.7% | 12.0% | 26.0% | 26.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.130 → 13.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Poole Town | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -21.0% | |
| 2 · Wimborne Town | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -11.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -7.7% | |
| X2 | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -9.6% | |
| 12 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -3.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Poole Town | 64.9% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Wimborne Town | 35.1% | 2.85 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.3% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.5% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -8.6% | |
| BTTS no | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -9.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.0% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.6% | 4.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.547 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.086 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Poole Town | Wimborne Town |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLWW | WWDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Poole Town ahead at 48%, against 26% for Wimborne Town and 25% for the draw. Standings: Poole Town 3rd on 32, Wimborne Town 10th on 22.
Form
Poole Town, last six: D L D L W W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Uxbridge. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Wimborne Town have five wins from their last six (W W D W W W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Crawley Town. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Poole Town 1–2 Wimborne Town. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Poole Town 1.28 · Wimborne Town 1.04 · total 2.32. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Poole Town 2–1 Wimborne Town. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Apr 2026Poole Town1–2Wimborne Town
Non League Premier Southern South table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 16 | +19 | 36 |
| 2 |  Hanworth Villa | 17 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Poole Town | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 4 |  Plymouth Parkway | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Chertsey Town | 16 | +10 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bath City | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 |  Chichester City | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Taunton Town | 15 | +14 | 25 |
| 9 |  Gosport Borough | 17 | +1 | 24 |
| 10 |  Wimborne Town | 13 | +13 | 22 |
| 11 |  Frome Town | 16 | +2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Hanwell Town | 17 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |  Basingstoke Town | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 14 |  Evesham United | 18 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 |  Sholing | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Berkhamsted | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 17 |  Yate Town | 17 | -12 | 18 |
| 18 |  Gloucester City | 15 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 |  Chippenham Town | 17 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Havant & Wville | 17 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Bracknell Town | 17 | -18 | 15 |
| 22 |  Malvern Town | 16 | -17 | 14 |
More Non League Premier Southern South predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Poole Town vs Wimborne Town?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Poole Town v Wimborne Town probabilities?
Poole Town win 48%, draw 25%, Wimborne Town win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Poole Town vs Wimborne Town?
Poole Town 2–1 Wimborne Town is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Poole Town vs Wimborne Town?
Poole Town 1.28, Wimborne Town 1.04 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Poole Town vs Wimborne Town?
Tuesday 17 November 2026, 20:45 WAT – Non League Premier Southern South.