- λ home
- 2.04
- λ away
- 1.02
- Σλ total
- 3.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–1 10.0%
Needham Market vs Banbury United prediction & xG model: Needham Market to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Needham Market v Banbury United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNeedham Market to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Needham Market v Banbury United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (27 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needham Market (home) | 1.66 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 2.11 |
| Banbury United (away) | 1.38 | 0.65 | 0.95 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.19 × 1.07 ≈ 2.11
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.96 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.34 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.84 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.04, λaway = 1.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Needham Market | 65.6% | 64.0% | 54.7% | 60.1% |
| X Draw | 20.6% | 22.0% | 23.5% | 22.6% |
| 2 Banbury United | 13.8% | 14.0% | 21.8% | 17.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Needham Market pick | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -2.0% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -14.0% | |
| 2 · Banbury United | 17.3% | 5.79 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -29.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -5.7% | |
| X2 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -21.4% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -10.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Needham Market | 77.7% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Banbury United | 22.3% | 4.48 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -6.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.7% | 4.61 | 3.72 | 26.9% | -19.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -13.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.9% | 2.87 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -4.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -12.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | 1.76 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -4.3% | |
| BTTS no | 43.0% | 2.32 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -14.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.6% | 2.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.7% | 5.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.601 × 1.63 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Needham Market | Banbury United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDLWW | LLDLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Needham Market 60% to win. Standings: Needham Market 4th on 31, Banbury United 20th on 14.
Form
Sequence for Needham Market: W D D L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Stourbridge. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Banbury United, last six: L L D L L W – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Stratford Town. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Needham Market 2.04 · Banbury United 1.02 · total 3.07. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Needham Market to win, probability 60%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Needham Market 2–1 Banbury United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Non League Premier Southern Central table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Bedford | 18 | +24 | 41 |
| 2 |  Bromsgrove Sporting | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 3 |  Bury Town | 19 | +5 | 37 |
| 4 |  Needham Market | 17 | +14 | 31 |
| 5 |  Kettering Town | 17 | +12 | 31 |
| 6 |  Peterborough Sports | 17 | +7 | 30 |
| 7 |  Alvechurch | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 8 |  Anstey Nomads | 16 | +9 | 29 |
| 9 |  Rushall Olympic | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 10 |  Halesowen Town | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 |  Stratford Town | 18 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 |  Stourbridge | 16 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Racing Club Warwick | 17 | 0 | 20 |
| 14 |  Redditch United | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Worcester City | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 |  Hitchin Town | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 17 |  Leiston | 16 | -7 | 16 |
| 18 |  Leamington | 18 | -9 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bishop's Stortford | 17 | -11 | 14 |
| 20 |  Banbury United | 18 | -14 | 14 |
| 21 |  Leighton Town | 16 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 |  Stamford | 16 | -35 | 5 |
More Non League Premier Southern Central predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Needham Market vs Banbury United?
The Model pick is Needham Market to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.63 by the bookmakers.
What are the Needham Market v Banbury United probabilities?
Needham Market win 60%, draw 23%, Banbury United win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Needham Market vs Banbury United?
Needham Market 2–1 Banbury United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Needham Market vs Banbury United?
Needham Market 2.04, Banbury United 1.02 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Needham Market vs Banbury United?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Non League Premier Southern Central.