- λ home
- 1.02
- λ away
- 1.52
- Σλ total
- 2.54
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Mega Sport vs El Seka El Hadid prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Mega Sport v El Seka El Hadid: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Mega Sport v El Seka El Hadid are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (12 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Sport (home) | 1.66 | 0.69 | 1.02 | 1.18 |
| El Seka El Hadid (away) | 1.38 | 0.99 | 1.15 | 1.57 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.69 × 1.02 ≈ 1.18
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.75 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.77 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.35 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.54 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.02, λaway = 1.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 25.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 48.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mega Sport | 28.2% | 25.0% | 28.0% | 26.3% |
| X Draw | 26.2% | 19.0% | 30.9% | 24.0% |
| 2 El Seka El Hadid | 45.6% | 56.0% | 41.1% | 49.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mega Sport | 26.3% | 3.81 | 3.18 | 31.4% | -16.4% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 2.89 | 34.6% | -30.7% | |
| 2 · El Seka El Hadid | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.17 | 46.1% | +7.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -23.6% | |
| X2 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.6% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mega Sport | 34.6% | 2.89 | – | – | – | |
| DNB El Seka El Hadid | 65.4% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -5.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.0% | 3.23 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -17.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -2.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -12.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3.88 | 25.8% | -6.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -10.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.88 | 53.2% | +2.3% | |
| BTTS no | 45.6% | 2.19 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -19.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.2% | 4.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.544 × 1.88 − 1 = +0.023 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.026 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mega Sport | El Seka El Hadid |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLLL | LWWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
El Seka El Hadid narrowly ahead at 50%; Mega Sport 26%. Standings: Mega Sport 19th on 7, El Seka El Hadid 10th on 18.
Form
Mega Sport have zero wins from their last six (D D L L L L). Latest: 1–1 away at Team. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for El Seka El Hadid: L W W D D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Al Ahly. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mega Sport 1.02 · El Seka El Hadid 1.52 · total 2.54. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.88 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Mega Sport 1–2 El Seka El Hadid. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mega Sport vs El Seka El Hadid?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.88 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mega Sport v El Seka El Hadid probabilities?
Mega Sport win 26%, draw 24%, El Seka El Hadid win 50%.
What is the most probable score for Mega Sport vs El Seka El Hadid?
Mega Sport 1–2 El Seka El Hadid is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mega Sport vs El Seka El Hadid?
Mega Sport 1.02, El Seka El Hadid 1.52 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Mega Sport vs El Seka El Hadid?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – Second League.