- λ home
- 1.13
- λ away
- 1.25
- Σλ total
- 2.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.1%
Itesalat vs Kahraba Ismailia prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Itesalat v Kahraba Ismailia: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Itesalat v Kahraba Ismailia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.27 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.13, λaway = 1.25
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Itesalat | – | 39.0% | 29.1% | 34.9% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 32.3% | 24.6% |
| 2 Kahraba Ismailia | – | 42.0% | 38.6% | 40.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Itesalat | 34.9% | 2.87 | 3.06 | 32.7% | +6.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.6% | 4.07 | 2.76 | 36.2% | -32.2% | |
| 2 · Kahraba Ismailia | 40.6% | 2.47 | 2.31 | 43.3% | -6.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -13.2% | |
| X2 | 65.1% | 1.53 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -17.9% | |
| 12 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Itesalat | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kahraba Ismailia | 53.8% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.4% | 3.00 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -14.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.31 | 43.3% | -5.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.5% | 4.66 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -8.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -9.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.93 | 51.8% | +9.6% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -25.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.666 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.067 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Itesalat | Kahraba Ismailia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDWLW | DWDLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 35 / 25 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Itesalat 8th on 19, Kahraba Ismailia 3rd on 21.
Form
Itesalat have two wins from their last six (L L D W L W). Latest: 0–1 away at El Mokawloon. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Kahraba Ismailia have two wins from their last six (D W D L D W). Latest: 0–0 away at Wadi Degla. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Itesalat 1.13 · Kahraba Ismailia 1.25 · total 2.38. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Itesalat 1–2 Kahraba Ismailia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Haras El Hodood | 11 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Team | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  El Dakhleya | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Tanta SC | 11 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Itesalat vs Kahraba Ismailia?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Itesalat v Kahraba Ismailia probabilities?
Itesalat win 35%, draw 25%, Kahraba Ismailia win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Itesalat vs Kahraba Ismailia?
Itesalat 1–2 Kahraba Ismailia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Itesalat vs Kahraba Ismailia?
Itesalat 1.13, Kahraba Ismailia 1.25 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Itesalat vs Kahraba Ismailia?
Friday 13 November 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Telecom Egypt Club Stadium – Second League.