- λ home
- 0.88
- λ away
- 0.87
- Σλ total
- 1.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 26%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 0–0 17.4%
Tanta SC vs AL Nasr SC prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Tanta SC v AL Nasr SC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Tanta SC v AL Nasr SC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanta SC (home) | 1.66 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| AL Nasr SC (away) | 1.38 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 1.23 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.73 × 0.79 ≈ 0.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.18 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.75 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 1.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.88, λaway = 0.87
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 33.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 17.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tanta SC | 27.7% | 40.0% | 34.1% | 37.5% |
| X Draw | 30.4% | 20.0% | 34.1% | 25.9% |
| 2 AL Nasr SC | 41.8% | 40.0% | 31.9% | 36.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tanta SC | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · AL Nasr SC | 36.6% | 2.73 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +2.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.8% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -12.5% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.44 | 69.4% | +6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tanta SC | 50.6% | 1.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB AL Nasr SC | 49.4% | 2.03 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 10.1% | 9.92 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 89.9% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.3% | 2.11 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS no pick | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -14.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.6% | 4.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 53.4% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.0% | 4.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.527 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.147 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tanta SC | AL Nasr SC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDWDW | WDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 1-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Tanta SC 38%, draw 26%, AL Nasr SC 37%. Standings: Tanta SC 14th on 13, AL Nasr SC 6th on 20.
Form
Sequence for Tanta SC: L L D W D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at Itesalat. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
AL Nasr SC have one win from their last four (W D D D). Latest: 2–0 at home to Dayrout. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tanta SC 0.88 · AL Nasr SC 0.87 · total 1.75. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 74%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.90. Most probable score: Tanta SC 1–0 AL Nasr SC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tanta SC vs AL Nasr SC?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tanta SC v AL Nasr SC probabilities?
Tanta SC win 38%, draw 26%, AL Nasr SC win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Tanta SC vs AL Nasr SC?
Tanta SC 1–0 AL Nasr SC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tanta SC vs AL Nasr SC?
Tanta SC 0.88, AL Nasr SC 0.87 – over 2.5 at 26%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Tanta SC vs AL Nasr SC?
Thursday 17 September 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Tanta Stadium – Second League.