- λ home
- 1.20
- λ away
- 1.55
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Tanta SC vs Masar prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tanta SC v Masar: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Tanta SC v Masar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (21 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanta SC (home) | 1.66 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 1.04 |
| Masar (away) | 1.38 | 1.17 | 0.92 | 1.48 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.73 × 0.87 ≈ 1.04
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.52 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.20, λaway = 1.55
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tanta SC | 26.3% | 29.0% | 28.8% | 28.9% |
| X Draw | 27.5% | 20.0% | 34.1% | 25.9% |
| 2 Masar | 46.3% | 51.0% | 37.2% | 45.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tanta SC | 28.9% | 3.46 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -10.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -32.1% | |
| 2 · Masar | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.40 | 41.7% | +8.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -17.8% | |
| X2 | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -7.6% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tanta SC | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Masar | 61.0% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.3% | 1.88 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +14.7% | |
| BTTS no | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -24.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.6% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.2% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.533 × 2.15 − 1 = +0.147 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.127 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tanta SC | Masar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDWDD | WWWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 45% against 29%. Standings: Tanta SC 14th on 13, Masar 2nd on 23.
Form
Tanta SC have two wins from their last six (D W D W D D). Latest: 0–0 away at Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Masar, last six: W W W L W L – four wins in total. Latest: 4–0 at home to Dayrout. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tanta SC 1.20 · Masar 1.55 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 2.15 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Tanta SC 1–2 Masar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 12 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Masar | 12 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Haras El Hodood | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pharco | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kahraba Ismailia | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |  AL Nasr SC | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  El Mansura | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Itesalat | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 9 |  Tersana | 12 | +4 | 18 |
| 10 |  El Seka El Hadid | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  El Entag EL Harby | 12 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Ismaily SC | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tanta SC | 12 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 |  Team | 12 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 |  El Dakhleya | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 |  Proxy | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  La Viena FC | 12 | -7 | 8 |
| 19 |  Mega Sport | 12 | -10 | 7 |
| 20 |  Dayrout | 12 | -17 | 7 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tanta SC vs Masar?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 2.15 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tanta SC v Masar probabilities?
Tanta SC win 29%, draw 26%, Masar win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Tanta SC vs Masar?
Tanta SC 1–2 Masar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tanta SC vs Masar?
Tanta SC 1.20, Masar 1.55 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Tanta SC vs Masar?
Friday 4 September 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Tanta Stadium – Second League.