- λ home
- 2.29
- λ away
- 0.74
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.7%
Tatabánya vs Gyori ETO II prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tatabánya v Gyori ETO II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Tatabánya v Gyori ETO II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatabánya (home) | 1.75 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.32 |
| Gyori ETO II (away) | 1.49 | 0.80 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.75 × 1.33 × 1.00 ≈ 2.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.00 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.29, λaway = 0.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tatabánya | 73.3% | 61.0% | 74.7% | 71.0% |
| X Draw | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| 2 Gyori ETO II | 9.2% | 22.0% | 9.0% | 12.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tatabánya | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -14.7% | |
| X · Draw | 16.9% | 5.92 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -7.1% | |
| 2 · Gyori ETO II | 12.1% | 8.29 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +20.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.9% | 1.14 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -9.4% | |
| X2 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +8.6% | |
| 12 | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tatabánya | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Gyori ETO II | 14.5% | 6.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.5% | 5.12 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | 2.52 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -1.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.9% | 2.79 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.7% | 1.83 | 2.03 | 49.3% | +11.0% | |
| BTTS no | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -24.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.5% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.8% | 2.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.8% | 8.50 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.547 × 2.03 − 1 = +0.110 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.106 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tatabánya | Gyori ETO II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWWW | WLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Tatabánya 71% to win. Standings: Tatabánya 2nd on 34, Gyori ETO II 12th on 17.
Form
Tatabánya have four wins from their last six (W D D W W W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Haladás VSE. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Gyori ETO II, last six: W L L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Bicskei. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Gyori ETO II 2–1 Tatabánya. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tatabánya 2.29 · Gyori ETO II 0.74 · total 3.03. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 2.03 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Tatabánya 2–1 Gyori ETO II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Jul 2026Gyori ETO II2–1Tatabánya
NB III Northwest table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dorogi FC | 15 | +29 | 36 |
| 2 |  Tatabánya | 15 | +23 | 34 |
| 3 |  Haladás VSE | 15 | +22 | 32 |
| 4 |  Puskás II | 15 | +9 | 26 |
| 5 |  Komárom | 15 | +5 | 25 |
| 6 |  Sárisápi Bányász | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 7 |  MTE 1904 | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 8 |  SC Sopron | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Zalaegerszegi TE II | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 10 |  Bicskei | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 |  Veszprém | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 |  Gyori ETO II | 15 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 |  Király SZE | 15 | -11 | 14 |
| 14 |  Pápai Perutz | 15 | -18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Balatonalmádi | 15 | -28 | 11 |
| 16 |  1908 SZAC | 15 | -36 | 2 |
More NB III Northwest predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tatabánya vs Gyori ETO II?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 2.03 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tatabánya v Gyori ETO II probabilities?
Tatabánya win 71%, draw 17%, Gyori ETO II win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Tatabánya vs Gyori ETO II?
Tatabánya 2–1 Gyori ETO II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tatabánya vs Gyori ETO II?
Tatabánya 2.29, Gyori ETO II 0.74 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Tatabánya vs Gyori ETO II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Grosics Gyula Stadion – NB III Northwest.