- λ home
- 2.99
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 4.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 78%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.0%
Diósgyőr II vs Nyiregyhaza II prediction & xG model: Diósgyőr II to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Diósgyőr II v Nyiregyhaza II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDiósgyőr II to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Diósgyőr II v Nyiregyhaza II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diósgyőr II (home) | 1.90 | 1.22 | 1.51 | 3.50 |
| Nyiregyhaza II (away) | 1.39 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.33 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.90 × 1.22 × 1.51 ≈ 3.50
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.83 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.73 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.92 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.99, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 71.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Diósgyőr II | 77.4% | 64.0% | 62.0% | 67.8% |
| X Draw | 12.3% | 16.0% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| 2 Nyiregyhaza II | 10.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 16.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Diósgyőr II pick | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -1.6% | |
| X · Draw | 15.5% | 6.44 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -22.3% | |
| 2 · Nyiregyhaza II | 16.6% | 6.02 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -25.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.6% | |
| X2 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -22.8% | |
| 12 | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -6.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Diósgyőr II | 80.3% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nyiregyhaza II | 19.7% | 5.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 92.7% | 1.08 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 7.3% | 13.69 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -15.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 61.9% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 38.1% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -9.2% | |
| BTTS no | 31.2% | 3.20 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -6.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.2% | 6.18 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.678 × 1.45 − 1 = -0.016 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Diósgyőr II | Nyiregyhaza II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWLL | LLLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 3.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Diósgyőr II at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Diósgyőr II 7th on 22, Nyiregyhaza II 16th on 4.
Form
Diósgyőr II, last six: W L L W L L – two wins in total. Latest: 7–1 at home to Tarpa. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Nyiregyhaza II, last six: L L L D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–5 away at Hajdúnánás. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Diósgyőr II 0, Nyiregyhaza II 2, drawn 0, 4.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Nyiregyhaza II 3–1 Diósgyőr II. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Diósgyőr II 2.99 · Nyiregyhaza II 1.30 · total 4.28. High total: over 2.5 78%, BTTS 69%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Diósgyőr II to win, probability 68%, odds 1.45 v fair 1.47. Most probable score: Diósgyőr II 2–1 Nyiregyhaza II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Jul 2026Nyiregyhaza II3–1Diósgyőr II
- 26 Apr 2026Diósgyőr II1–4Nyiregyhaza II
NB III Northeast table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ózd Sajóvölgye | 15 | +34 | 37 |
| 2 |  Cigand SE | 15 | +26 | 36 |
| 3 |  Debrecen II | 15 | +12 | 31 |
| 4 |  DEAC | 15 | +15 | 30 |
| 5 |  Gödöllő | 15 | +9 | 25 |
| 6 |  Mátészalka | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Diósgyőr II | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 |  Kisvárda II | 15 | +4 | 22 |
| 9 |  Tiszaújváros | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Füzesabony | 15 | -6 | 17 |
| 11 |  Hajdúnánás | 15 | -13 | 17 |
| 12 |  Eger | 15 | -17 | 17 |
| 13 |  Tiszafuredi VSE | 15 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 |  Salgótarjáni BTC | 15 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 |  Tarpa | 15 | -26 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nyiregyhaza II | 15 | -30 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Diósgyőr II vs Nyiregyhaza II?
The Model pick is Diósgyőr II to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.45 by the bookmakers.
What are the Diósgyőr II v Nyiregyhaza II probabilities?
Diósgyőr II win 68%, draw 16%, Nyiregyhaza II win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Diósgyőr II vs Nyiregyhaza II?
Diósgyőr II 2–1 Nyiregyhaza II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Diósgyőr II vs Nyiregyhaza II?
Diósgyőr II 2.99, Nyiregyhaza II 1.30 – over 2.5 at 78%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is Diósgyőr II vs Nyiregyhaza II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – NB III Northeast.