- λ home
- 1.51
- λ away
- 1.65
- Σλ total
- 3.15
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.6%
Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Central Coast Mariners 35% · draw 23% · Perth Glory 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners (home) | 1.65 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| Perth Glory (away) | 1.20 | 1.09 | 1.26 | 1.64 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.65 × 0.93 × 1.00 ≈ 1.52
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.16 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.05 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.15 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.51, λaway = 1.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Central Coast Mariners | 35.1% | 36.0% | 34.7% | 35.2% |
| X Draw | 24.5% | 17.0% | 25.3% | 23.1% |
| 2 Perth Glory | 40.4% | 47.0% | 39.9% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.066 → 6.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Central Coast Mariners | 35.2% | 2.84 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -5.1% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.32 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -14.4% | |
| 2 · Perth Glory | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -2.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -8.5% | |
| X2 | 64.8% | 1.54 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.6% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -1.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Central Coast Mariners | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Perth Glory | 54.3% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.6% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.4% | 5.45 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -8.2% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -9.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -10.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -7.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.9% | 3.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.6% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.600 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.059 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Central Coast Mariners | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDLL | WWLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 35 / 23 / 42% for home, draw, away. Standings: Central Coast Mariners 11th on 2, Perth Glory 5th on 6.
Form
Central Coast Mariners, last six: L D L D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–4 away at Sydney. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Perth Glory, last six: W W L L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Newcastle Jets. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Perth Glory. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Central Coast Mariners 1.51 · Perth Glory 1.65 · total 3.15. High total: over 2.5 60%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 2.5 goals, probability 60%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Perth Glory. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 Apr 2026Central Coast Mariners2–2Perth Glory
A League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wellington Phoenix | 4 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 |  Sydney | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Brisbane Roar | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Melbourne City | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 |  Perth Glory | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 |  Macarthur | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 |  Auckland | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 |  Melbourne Victory | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Newcastle Jets | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 11 |  Central Coast Mariners | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 12 |  Adelaide United | 3 | -5 | 1 |
More A League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory probabilities?
Central Coast Mariners win 35%, draw 23%, Perth Glory win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Perth Glory is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
Central Coast Mariners 1.51, Perth Glory 1.65 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 07:00 WAT – A League.