- λ home
- 1.23
- λ away
- 2.03
- Σλ total
- 3.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.7%
RB Leipzig W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
RB Leipzig W v Eintracht Frankfurt W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for RB Leipzig W v Eintracht Frankfurt W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (14 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig W (home) | 1.91 | 0.94 | 0.73 | 1.31 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt W (away) | 1.66 | 1.13 | 1.01 | 1.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 0.94 × 0.73 ≈ 1.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.20 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.18 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.41 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.23, λaway = 2.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 22.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 RB Leipzig W | 26.1% | 13.0% | 17.1% | 19.3% |
| X Draw | 23.4% | 17.0% | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| 2 Eintracht Frankfurt W | 50.5% | 70.0% | 62.1% | 59.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · RB Leipzig W | 19.3% | 5.18 | 5.25 | 19.0% | +1.4% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.80 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -9.8% | |
| 2 · Eintracht Frankfurt W | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -13.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -3.7% | |
| X2 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -10.4% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB RB Leipzig W | 24.4% | 4.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Eintracht Frankfurt W | 75.6% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -6.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 6.25 | 6.00 | 16.7% | -4.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.54 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -3.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -2.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -15.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.2% | 4.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.9% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.644 × 1.53 − 1 = -0.014 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | RB Leipzig W | Eintracht Frankfurt W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWWW | WLDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 60% against 19%. Standings: RB Leipzig W 10th on 10, Eintracht Frankfurt W 4th on 17.
Form
RB Leipzig W have three wins from their last six (L L L W W W). Latest: 1–3 away at FC Koln W. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Eintracht Frankfurt W: W L D W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to PSVEindhoven W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG RB Leipzig W 1.23 · Eintracht Frankfurt W 2.03 · total 3.26. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: RB Leipzig W 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 10 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 10 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Werder Bremen W | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin W | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for RB Leipzig W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the RB Leipzig W v Eintracht Frankfurt W probabilities?
RB Leipzig W win 19%, draw 21%, Eintracht Frankfurt W win 60%.
What is the most probable score for RB Leipzig W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W?
RB Leipzig W 1–2 Eintracht Frankfurt W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for RB Leipzig W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W?
RB Leipzig W 1.23, Eintracht Frankfurt W 2.03 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is RB Leipzig W vs Eintracht Frankfurt W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Leipzig Red Bull Arena – Frauen Bundesliga.