- λ home
- 2.64
- λ away
- 1.15
- Σλ total
- 3.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.1%
VfL Wolfsburg W vs FC Koln W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg W (home) | 1.91 | 1.42 | 0.88 | 2.38 |
| FC Koln W (away) | 1.66 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 1.40 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 1.42 × 0.88 ≈ 2.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.77 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.79 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.64, λaway = 1.15
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 VfL Wolfsburg W | 58.7% | 67.0% | 69.4% | 68.0% |
| X Draw | 19.9% | 19.0% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| 2 FC Koln W | 21.4% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 13.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · VfL Wolfsburg W | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -12.3% | |
| X · Draw | 18.9% | 5.30 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -9.5% | |
| 2 · FC Koln W | 13.1% | 7.61 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -1.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.9% | 1.15 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -7.1% | |
| X2 | 32.0% | 3.13 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +2.4% | |
| 12 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB VfL Wolfsburg W | 83.8% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Koln W | 16.2% | 6.18 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.8% | 9.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | 3.70 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -23.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.2% | 1.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.1% | 6.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.646 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.033 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.056 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | VfL Wolfsburg W | FC Koln W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWL | WLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
VfL Wolfsburg W at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: VfL Wolfsburg W 2nd on 24, FC Koln W 6th on 15.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg W, last six: W W W W W L – five wins in total. Latest: 5–0 away at Mainz 05 W. 3.7 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for FC Koln W: W L W L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Hamburger SV W. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG VfL Wolfsburg W 2.64 · FC Koln W 1.15 · total 3.79. High total: over 2.5 73%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: VfL Wolfsburg W 2–1 FC Koln W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 10 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 10 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Werder Bremen W | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin W | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for VfL Wolfsburg W vs FC Koln W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln W probabilities?
VfL Wolfsburg W win 68%, draw 19%, FC Koln W win 13%.
What is the most probable score for VfL Wolfsburg W vs FC Koln W?
VfL Wolfsburg W 2–1 FC Koln W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for VfL Wolfsburg W vs FC Koln W?
VfL Wolfsburg W 2.64, FC Koln W 1.15 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is VfL Wolfsburg W vs FC Koln W?
Saturday 24 October 2026, 11:00 WAT, at AOK Stadion – Frauen Bundesliga.