- λ home
- 1.32
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 2.33
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
FC Koln W vs Union Berlin W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Koln W v Union Berlin W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Koln W v Union Berlin W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koln W (home) | 1.91 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.99 |
| Union Berlin W (away) | 1.66 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 1.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.91 × 1.03 × 1.01 ≈ 1.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.44 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.33 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.33 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.32, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Koln W | 49.7% | 51.0% | 40.4% | 46.6% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 22.1% |
| 2 Union Berlin W | 27.7% | 31.0% | 31.8% | 31.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Koln W | 46.6% | 2.15 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +2.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Union Berlin W | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -12.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -6.6% | |
| X2 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -16.1% | |
| 12 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Koln W | 59.8% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Union Berlin W | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -9.9% | |
| BTTS no | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -5.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.6% | 4.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.589 × 1.53 − 1 = -0.099 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Koln W | Union Berlin W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | LLLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Koln W ahead at 47%, against 31% for Union Berlin W and 22% for the draw. Standings: FC Koln W 6th on 15, Union Berlin W 8th on 11.
Form
FC Koln W have five wins from their last six (W W L W W W). Latest: 4–0 away at Mainz 05 W. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Union Berlin W, last six: L L L L L W – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt W. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Union Berlin W 2–1 FC Koln W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Koln W 1.32 · Union Berlin W 1.01 · total 2.33. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: FC Koln W 2–1 Union Berlin W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 20 Feb 2026Union Berlin W2–1FC Koln W
Frauen Bundesliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich W | 10 | +27 | 30 |
| 2 |  VfL Wolfsburg W | 10 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  Werder Bremen W | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Eintracht Frankfurt W | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen W | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  FC Koln W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 |  1899 Hoffenheim W | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin W | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 |  Stuttgart W | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 10 |  RB Leipzig W | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 |  SC Freiburg W | 10 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV W | 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nürnberg W | 9 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Mainz 05 W | 10 | -30 | 0 |
More Frauen Bundesliga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Koln W vs Union Berlin W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Koln W v Union Berlin W probabilities?
FC Koln W win 47%, draw 22%, Union Berlin W win 31%.
What is the most probable score for FC Koln W vs Union Berlin W?
FC Koln W 2–1 Union Berlin W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Koln W vs Union Berlin W?
FC Koln W 1.32, Union Berlin W 1.01 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is FC Koln W vs Union Berlin W?
Saturday 12 September 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Franz-Kremer Stadion – Frauen Bundesliga.